农户化肥减量替代的选择偏好及其价值估算——以绿肥种植为例

FAMERS' PREFERENCE AND VALUE ESTIMATION OF GREEN MANURE PLANTING UNDER THE BACKGROUND OF CHEMICAL FERTILIZER REDUCTION AND SUBSTITUTION——A CASE STUDY OF CHININESE MILK VETCH

关键词:  绿肥  化肥减量替代  紫云英  选择实验

Key words:  green manure  chemical fertilizer reduction and substitution  Chinese milk vetch  choice experiment

摘要:

目的 通过要素替代理论、技术扩散理论以及外部性理论分析绿肥替代化肥的作用机制，利用选择实验法收集农户紫云英种植偏好，为我国化肥减量化的进一步推行提供决策依据。方法 文章基于2022年江西省1 007份农户选择实验问卷数据，在充分考虑异质性偏好的基础上，通过混合Logit模型分析影响农户紫云英种植意愿的关键因素。结果 政府补贴、化肥减施效果、水稻增产潜力及技术指导正向影响农户紫云英种植偏好，且农户对化肥减施30%的偏好存在异质性，其中风险偏好、绿色生产技术对土壤质量的影响是偏好异质性的重要来源。男性、年龄越大、具有党员身份、收入相对较高、家庭农业劳动力人数较多、土地连片程度更好、偏好风险、绿色生产技术认知更高的农户更愿意种植紫云英。农户偏好化肥减施30%、水稻增产15%和有技术指导的AES方案，需要政府给予更高的补偿激励。结论 通过有效发挥政府引导作用、提供补贴和农技服务、持续推进土地连片整治工作、宣传绿色生产技术的方式，充分调动农户种植绿肥的积极性。

Abstract:

By employing the factor substitution theory, the technology diffusion theory, and the externality theory, this research makes an analysis of the mechanism of green manure replacing chemical fertilizers，and provides a decision-making basis for further promoting the reduction of chemical fertilizers in China. Based on the data of 1 007 experimental questionnaires from farmers in Jiangxi province in 2022, and on the basis of fully considering the heterogeneity preferences, this study applied a mixed Logit modelt to analyze the key factors affecting farmers'willingness to plant Chinese milk vetch. The results were listed as follows. The government subsidies, the effectiveness of reducing fertilizer application, the potential for increasing rice production, and the technical guidance all had a positive impact on the preference of farmers for planting Chinese milk vetch, and there was heterogeneity in the preference of farmers for reducing fertilizer application by 30%. Among them, the risk preference and the impact of green production technology on soil quality were the important sources of the preference heterogeneity. At the same time, farmers who were male, older, having the Party membership, enjoying a relatively higher income, having a larger number of agricultural laborers in their households, having a better land connectivity, preferring risks, and having a higher awareness of green production technology were more willing to plant Chinese milk vetch. Further analysis revealed that farmers who prefered a 30% reduction in fertilizer application, a 15% increase in rice production, and the AES plans with technical guidance would require higher compensation incentives from the government. Therefore, the enthusiasm of farmers to plant green manure can be fully mobilized by effectively leveraging the government's guiding role, providing subsidies and agricultural technology services, continuously promoting the land consolidation work, and promoting the green production technologies.