乡村振兴背景下浙江省县域乡村人口与经济格局演化研究

STUDY ON THE EVOLUTION OF COUNTY-LEVEL RURAL POPULATION AND ECONOMIC PATTERN IN ZHEJIANG PROVINCE UNDER THE BACKGROUND OF RURAL REVITALIZATION

关键词:  乡村收缩  乡村人口  乡村经济  增长与收缩  浙江省

Key words:  rural shrinkage  rural population  rural economic  growth and contraction  Zhejiang province

摘要:

目的 基于浙江省县域单元，分析其乡村人口—经济增长与收缩发展格局和演变趋势，识别乡村增长/收缩类型，为乡村振兴和高质量发展提供参考。方法 文章选择浙江省51个县域的乡村为研究对象，通过数理统计分析和NPP/VIIRS遥感数据，借助ARCGIS和GEODA空间自相关分析，综合分析近年来浙江省乡村人口—经济发展的空间变化特征和分布格局。结果 （1）2012—2022年浙江省乡村人口—经济一致性指数基本处于稳定发展态势；其中，协调发展型县域占比45.45%；经济滞后发展型12.73%；经济发展超前型41.82%；人口与经济同时呈现集聚发展态势，两者协调性具有较强的空间正相关性。（2）2012—2022年88.24%的县域乡村人口呈收缩态势，主要分布于省东南区域；乡村人口分布演化趋势呈现由南偏东向北偏西的方向迁移，南北人口分布差异加剧。74.51%的县域乡村灯光亮度呈收缩态势，主要分布于省西南区域。（3）乡村发展类型均以持续收缩型为主，平均占比为56.86%；持续增长型占比为13.73%；转型增长型占比为18.62%；蔓延收缩型占比为10.78%。2012—2016年25.49%的乡村实现了增长，74.51%面临收缩；2016—2022年41.18%的乡村实现了增长，58.82%面临收缩。（4）乡村人口和经济发展变化具有一定的空间集聚特征，存在高值集聚和低值集聚现象。结论 近10年来浙江省县域乡村产业经济发展与人口流动之间的耦合协调状况基本保持平稳发展态势，县域乡村经济与人口流动趋势在分布上具有明显的空间集聚和协同互动效应。研究期间大部分区域乡村都处于收缩现状，整体呈现西南区域减弱，东北区域增强的态势，南北差异呈扩大的趋势。

Abstract:

Based on the county-level units in Zhejiang province, this paper aims to analyze the development pattern and trend of rural population economic growth and contraction, identify the types of rural growth/contraction, and provide a reference for rural revitalization and high-quality development. Rural areas in 51 counties in Zhejiang province were selected as the research objects, and with the mathematical statistical analysis and NPP/VIIRS remote sensing data, ARCGIS and GEODA spatial autocorrelation analysis were used to comprehensively analyze the spatial changes and distribution patterns of rural population economic development in Zhejiang province in recent years. The results were indicated as follows. (1) From 2012 to 2022, the rural population economy consistency index in Zhejiang province was basically in a coordinated development trend, and the development trend changed steadily; Among them, the proportion of coordinated development type counties was 45.45%; 41.82% of those with advanced economic development; 12.73% of economic development lagged behind; The population and economy were both showing a trend of agglomeration development, and there was a strong spatial positive correlation between their coordination. (2) From 2012 to 2022, 88.24% of the rural population in counties showed a shrinking trend, mainly distributed in the southeastern region of the province; The evolution trend of rural population distribution showed a migration from south by east to north by west, and the difference in population distribution between the north and south was intensifying. 74.51% of county-level rural lighting brightness showed a shrinking trend, mainly distributed in the southwestern region of the province. (3) The main types of rural development were continuous contraction, with an average proportion of 56.86%; The proportion of sustained growth type was 13.73%; The proportion of transformation and growth oriented enterprises was 18.62%; The proportion of spreading and contracting type was 10.78%. From 2012 to 2016, 25.49% of rural areas achieved growth, while 74.51% faced contraction; From 2016 to 2022, 41.18% of rural areas achieved growth, while 58.82% faced contraction. (4) The evolution of rural types had certain spatial clustering characteristics, with high value clustering and low value clustering phenomena. Therefore, in the past decade, the coupling and coordination between the development of county-level rural industrial economy and population mobility in Zhejiang province basically maintains a stable development trend. The distribution of county-level rural economy and population mobility trends has obvious spatial agglomeration and synergistic interaction effects. During the research period, most rural areas in the region were in a state of contraction, showing an overall trend of weakening in the southwest region and strengthening in the northeast region, with an expanding trend of differences between the north and south.