风险认知、个人信念与种粮大户气象灾害适应行为

RISK PERCEPTIONS AND PERSONAL BELIEFS ON CLIMATE ADAPTATION BEHAVIOR OF LARGE GRAIN FARMERS

关键词:  适应性行为  风险认知  个人信念  “知—信—行”模型  Oprobit

Key words:  adaptive behavior  risk perception  personal beliefs  ‘knowledge－belief－action’model  Oprobit

摘要:

目的 为促进种粮大户采取气象灾害适应行为，对粮食安全保障提供政策参考建议。方法 文章利用种粮大户870份微观数据，基于“知—信—行”理论模型，采用Oprobit模型深入研究风险认知与个人信念对种粮大户气象灾害适应行为的影响机制。结果 风险认知和个人信念对种粮大户采取气象灾害适应行为具有正向影响；个人信念发挥着部分中介作用；风险偏好、心理韧性负向调节风险认知对种粮大户采取气象灾害适应行为的影响；高健康水平状况下，种粮大户的风险认知及个人信念显著影响其气象灾害适应性行为的采纳；个人信念在和周围村民关系较好及参与村内集体活动较多的情况下对气象灾害适应性行为的采纳影响更显著。结论 在此基础上，政府部门可通过强化信息服务，提升种粮大户气象灾害风险防范意识；提高信念水平，增加种粮大户气象灾害应对自我效能；纠正心理偏差，促进种粮大户气象灾害适应行为采纳。

Abstract:

This study aims to promote the adoption of adaptive practices by large grain growers in response to climate disasters and to provide recommendations for food security policies. Using the survey data from 870 large grain farmers, and based on the ‘knowledge-belief-action’ theoretical model, the Oprobit model was used to analyze the impact mechanism of risk perception and personal beliefs on the adaptive behavior of large grain growers in response to climate disasters in China. The results showed that risk perception and personal beliefs positively affected the adoption of adaptive behavior by large grain growers in response to climate disasters. Personal beliefs played a partially mediating role. Risk preference and psychological resilience negatively regulated the effect of risk perception on the adoption of adaptive behavior by large grain growers in response to climate disasters. Under the condition of good health levels, the risk perception and personal beliefs of large grain farmers significantly affected the adoption of adaptive behavior in response to climate disasters. Personal beliefs had a more significant effect on the adoption of adaptive behavior by large grain growers in response to climate disasters when they had better relationships with surrounding villagers and participate more in collective activities in the village. Therefore, to promote the adoption of meteorological disaster adaptation behaviors by large-scale grain growersm, it should enhance the awareness of climate disaster risk prevention among large grain farmers by strengthening information services, increase the self-efficacy of large grain farmers in coping with weather disasters by improving their beliefs, and correct their psychological biases.