黄河流域水资源承载力与高质量发展的耦合协调及其驱动机制研究

RESEARCH ON COUPLING COORDINATION AND DRIVING MECHANISM OF WATER RESOURCE CARRYING CAPACITY AND HIGH-QUALITY DEVELOPMENT IN THE YELLOW RIVER BASIN

关键词:  水资源承载力  高质量发展  耦合协调  地理探测器  黄河流域

Key words:  water resource carrying capacity  high-quality development  coupling coordination  geodetector  Yellow River Basin

摘要:

目的 黄河流域水资源短缺，供需矛盾突出，水资源合理利用是高质量发展的核心。水资源承载力与高质量发展的耦合协调发展，有利于黄河流域人地系统耦合与可持续发展。方法 文章基于水资源承载力评价理论，研究黄河流域水资源承载力和高质量发展水平的耦合协调度及其驱动因素。结果 2000—2020年黄河流域水资源承载力水平与高质量发展水平均呈现上升趋势，各地市得分存在显著差异；各地市水资源承载力与高质量发展水平的耦合协调度逐步提高，整体由濒临失调衰退和勉强协调发展向初级协调发展转变，空间上呈现下游地区＞中游地区＞上游地区的特征；黄河流域耦合协调度的提升是多因素及其交互共同驱动的结果，产业因素是影响耦合协调的主要因素。结论 未来，黄河流域应持续提升水资源利用效率，促进产业结构、土地利用和人口数量的耦合，实现水资源可持续利用与区域高质量发展。

Abstract:

The Yellow River Basin is facing the shortage of water resources and a prominent supply-demand contradiction. The rational utilization of water resources is the core of high-quality development. The coupling and coordinated development of water resource carrying capacity and high-quality development is conductive to the coupling and sustainable development of the human-land system in the Yellow River Basin. Based on the theory of water resource carrying capacity evaluation, this study investigated the coupling coordination degree and driving factors between water resource carrying capacity and high-quality development level in the area. The results were listed as follows. From 2000 to 2020, the water resources carrying capacity and high-quality development level of the Yellow River Basin showed an upward trend, and the scores differed significantly among different cities. The coupling coordination between water resource carrying capacity and high-quality development level of various cities had been gradually increasing, and the overall trend was shifting from the dysfunctional decline and barely coordinated development to primary coordinated development. The spatial distribution presented the characteristics of downstream area＞midstream area＞upstream area. The improvement of the coupling coordination degree was the driven result of multiple factors and their interactions, and industrial factors were the main factors affecting the coupling coordination. In the future, to achieve sustainable utilization of water resources and high-quality regional development, the Yellow River Basin should continuously improve the efficiency of water resource utilization, promote the coupling of industrial structure, land use and population.