湖南油茶干旱指数保险产品优化与费率厘定

PRODUCT DESIGN AND PREMIUM RATE DETERMINATION FOR DROUGHT INDEX INSURANCE SPECIFICALLY TAILORED FOR HUNAN CAMELLIA

关键词:  干旱气象指数  油茶籽减产率  天气指数保险  费率厘定  保险产品设计

Key words:  drought weather index  camellia seeds yield reduction rate  weather index insurance  premium rate determination  insurance product design

摘要:

目的 气象指数保险具有理赔便捷以及成本低的优点，通过设计气象指数类保险产品以及费率厘定，为农林产品自然灾害风险的有效转移提供新思路。方法 文章基于2007—2019年逐年7—9月湖南省14个市（州）降水量以及油茶籽单产量数据，设计油茶干旱指数保险产品，选择科学的干旱指数指标参数，通过建立关键致灾因子与干旱的关系模型，构建干旱天气指数，对油茶干旱风险进行合理区划，使用Hodrick Prescott Filter（HP滤波）方法分离出气象产量从而测算油茶籽减产率，回归分析油茶籽干旱指数与减产率的相关关系，采用损失率期望值法厘定纯费率。结果 （1）湖南省干旱风险空间分布不均，衡阳市与永州市干旱致灾因子危险性最高，分别为11.41%与11.57%，而张家界市与娄底市相对干旱致灾因子危险性较低，分别为4.87%与6.01%。（2）油茶籽减产率与干旱指数存在着显著（P=0.001）的相关关系，拟合方程为YLR=0.464DI+0.097 3，当干旱指数为0时，其他灾害将会导致油茶籽减产9.73%，干旱指数每增加一个单位，减产率增加0.464个百分点，设置干旱指数为-15%为赔付触发值。（3）湖南油茶干旱指数保险各市（州）的纯费率差异较大，干旱程度越高纯费率越高，纯费率分布在6.49%~14.96%，永州市纯费率最高达到14.96%。结论 根据湖南干旱情况以及油茶空间分布现状，选取油茶籽年产量较高以及干旱风险较大的永州市与衡阳市作为先行市试点，建议政府制定差异化保费财政补贴政策。该产品可以有效转移油茶干旱风险，有助于森林保险公司低成本、高效率完成经济赔偿。

Abstract:

Weather index insurance offers the advantages of convenient claims and low costs. By designing weather index-based insurance products and determining their rates, new approaches for effectively transferring natural disaster risks for agricultural and forestry products can be provided. Based on the precipitation data from July to September and the single yield data of Camellia oleifera seeds from 2007 to 2019 in 14 cities (prefectures) of Hunan province, a drought index insurance product for Camellia oleifera was designed. Scientific drought index parameters were selected, and a relationship model between key disaster-causing factors and drought was established to construct a drought weather index for rational zoning of Camellia oleifera drought risks. The Hodrick Prescott Filter (HP filter) method was used to separate meteorological yields to calculate the reduction rate of Camellia oleifera seed yields. Regression analysis was conducted to examine the correlation between the drought index and the reduction rate of Camellia oleifera seed yields, and the expected loss ratio method was used to determine the pure premium rate. The results showed that: (1) The spatial distribution of drought risks in Hunan province was uneven. Hengyang city and Yongzhou city had the highest risk of drought disaster-causing factors, with values of 11.41% and 11.57%, respectively, while Zhangjiajie city and Loudi city had relatively lower risks, with values of 4.87% and 6.01%, respectively. (2) There was a significant (P=0.001) correlation between the reduction rate of Camellia oleifera seeds and the drought index. The fitting equation was YLR=0.464 DI+0.097 3. When the drought index was 0, other disasters woulf cause a 9.73% reduction in Camellia oleifera seed yields. For each unit increase in the drought index, the reduction rate increased by 0.464 percentage points. A drought index of 15% was set as the compensation trigger value. (3) The pure premium rates of the drought index insurance for Camellia oleifera in various cities (prefectures) of Hunan province varied significantly. The higher the degree of drought, the higher the pure premium rate, ranging from 6.49% to 14.96%, with Yongzhou city having the highest pure premium rate of 14.96%. Therefore, based on the drought situation in Hunan and the current spatial distribution of Camellia oleifera, Yongzhou city and Hengyang city, which have higher annual yields of Camellia oleifera seeds and greater drought risks, are selected as pilot cities. It is recommended that the government should formulate differentiated premium subsidy policies. And this product can effectively transfer the drought risk of Camellia oleifera and help forest insurance companies complete economic compensation at low cost and high efficiency.