生计资本对农户土地调整意愿的影响研究

STUDY ON THE IMPACT OF LIVELIHOOD CAPITAL ON FARMER'S LAND ADJUSTMENT WILLINGNESS

关键词:  土地调整意愿  生计资本  影响机制  收入预期  土地流转

Key words:  land adjustment willingness  livelihood capital  impact mechanisms  income expectations  land transfer

摘要:

目的 在第二轮土地承包到期之际，探究生计资本对农户土地调整意愿的影响机制对维护农民土地承包权益、保持地权稳定性和预防土地延包潜在纠纷具有重要意义。方法 基于可持续分析框架，文章利用2021年中国土地经济调查数据，采用熵权法、Logit模型、中介效应模型和调节效应模型，实证分析生计资本对农户土地调整意愿的影响机制，揭示收入预期和土地流转在二者间的中介及调节作用。结果 （1）生计资本显著正向影响农户土地调整意愿，人力资本和物质资本显著提升农户土地调整意愿，而自然资本和金融资本会抑制农户土地调整意愿；（2）收入预期在生计资本与农户土地调整意愿中发挥部分中介效应，效应占比为37.61%；（3）土地流转在生计资本和土地调整意愿中发挥调节作用，土地转入规模越小或土地转出规模越大，生计资本对农户土地调整意愿影响作用越强。结论 地方政府应因地制宜制定差异化的土地延包政策，同时注重农户各类生计资本的数量积累和质量提升，通过完善土地流转市场等建立可代替土地调整的权益调节机制。

Abstract:

At the time of the expiration of the second round of land contracting, exploring the mechanism of livelihood capital on farmers' land adjustment willingness is of great significance for safeguarding farmers' land contracting rights and interests, maintaining land ownership stability, and preventing potential disputes over land extension. Based on the sustainability analysis framework, this paper employed the 2021 China Land Economic Survey data, and used the entropy weight method, Logit model, mediation effect model and moderation effect model to empirically analyze the mechanism of livelihood capital on farmers' land adjustment willingness, and further revealed the mediating role of income expectations and moderating role of land transfer between the two. The results showed that: (1) Livelihood capital significantly positively affected farmers' land adjustment willingness, human capital and physical capital significantly enhance farmers' land adjustment willingness, while natural capital and financial capital inhibited farmers' land adjustment willingness. Income expectation played a partial mediating role in the effect of livelihood capital on farmers' land adjustment willingness, and the mediating effect accounted for 37.61%. Land transfer played a moderating role in the effect of livelihood capital on farmers' land adjustment willingness. The smaller the scale of farmers' land transfer in or the larger the scale of farmers' land transfer out, the stronger the impact of livelihood capital on farmers' land adjustment willingness. Therefore, local governments should formulate differentiated land contract extension policies according to local conditions, pay attention to the quantity accumulation and quality improvement of different types of farmers’ livelihood capital, and establish an equity adjustment mechanism that can replace land adjustment by improving the land transfer market.