农产品贸易对农业产业结构优化升级的影响研究——基于农业技术创新的调节作用

RESEARCH ON THE IMPACT OF AGRICUITURAL PRODUCT TRADE ON THE OPTIMIZATION AND UPGRADING OF AGRICULTURAL INDUSTRIAL STRUCTURE——THE REGULATORY ROLE BASED ON AGRICULTURAL TECHNOLOGY INNOVATION

关键词:  农产品贸易  农业产业结构合理化  农业产业结构高级化  异质性  农业技术创新

Key words:  agricultural products trade  rationalization of agricultural industrial structure  advancement of agricultural industrial structure  heterogeneity  agricultural technological innovation

摘要:

目的 农业产业结构优化升级是实现农业强国建设的重要途径，探究农产品贸易、农业技术创新对农业产业结构优化升级的影响，对推动农业产业结构优化升级、建设农业强国具有重要意义。方法 文章以2003—2022年我国31个省（市、区，不含港澳台）数据为基础，将农业产业结构优化升级划分为农业产业结构合理化、高级化两个方面，利用双向固定效应模型分析农产品贸易对农业产业结构合理化、高级化的影响，并利用调节效应模型实证分析农业技术创新对上述影响的调节作用。结果 （1）2003—2022年全国及各区域的农产品贸易水平、农业产业结构优化水平均呈现波动增长的趋势，东部农产品贸易水平、农业产业结构优化水平均高于中西部地区。（2）从全国层面看，农产品贸易对农业产业结构合理化、高级化均有显著的正向影响，且农产品出口对农业产业结构合理化、高级化的促进作用优于农产品进口。（3）从区域层面看，东部地区农产品贸易对农业产业结构合理化、高级化的促进作用优于中西部。（4）非粮食主产区农产品贸易对农业产业结构合理化、高级化的促进作用优于粮食主产区。（5）通过对农业技术创新的调节效应进行检验发现，农业技术创新正向调节着农产品贸易对农业产业结构优化升级的促进作用。结论 加快农产品出口示范基地建设，强化农产品出口对农业产业结构优化升级的促进作用；优化进口农产品的结构，实现农业产业结构优化升级；制定有差别的贸易政策并加强区域间的农业合作，推动全国农业产业结构优化升级；提升农产品贸易部门技术创新能力，充分发挥技术创新在农产品贸易促进农业产业结构优化升级中的正向调节作用，加快推动农业产业结构优化升级。

Abstract:

The optimization and upgrading of the agricultural industrial structure is an important pathway to construct an agricultural powerhouse. The investigation of the influence of agricultural product trade and agricultural technological innovation on the optimization and upgrading of the agricultural industrial structure is of paramount importance for the advancement of the upgrading of the agricultural industrial structure, as well as building a powerful agricultural country. Based on the data of 31 provinces (cities, autonomous regions and excluding Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan) in China from 2003 to 2022, the research divided the optimization and upgrading of the agricultural industrial structure into two aspects: rationalization and advancement of the agricultural industrial structure. A two-way fixed effect model was employed to empirically analyze the impact of agricultural trade on the rationalization and advancement of the agricultural industrial structure. Besides, a moderating effect model was applied to empirically analyze the moderating effect of agricultural technological innovation on the aforementioned influence. The results were listed as follows. (1) From 2003 to 2022, the level of agricultural trade and the optimization of the agricultural industrial structure throughout the country and the whole regions took on a trend of fluctuating growth, with the east being higher than the central and western regions. (2) From the perspective of country, trade in agricultural products had a significantly positive influence on the rationalization and advancement of the agricultural industrial structure, while the promotional effect of agricultural exports was better than that of agricultural imports. (3) Seen at the regional level, trade of agricultural products in the eastern region had a greater promotional effect than that in the central and western regions on the rationalization and advancement of the agricultural industrial structure. (4) Trade in agricultural products from non-major grain producing areas contributed more to the rationalization and advancement of the agricultural industrial structure than it did in major grain producing areas. (5) According to the examination of moderating effect on agricultural technological innovation, it discovered that agricultural technological innovation positively moderated the role of agricultural trade in boosting the upgrading of agricultural industrial structure. Accordingly, the following suggestions are put forward. (1) Accelerate the construction of demonstration bases for agricultural products exports and strengthen the role of agricultural exports in promoting the optimization and upgrading of the agricultural industrial structure. (2) Optimize the structure of imported agricultural products to achieve the optimization and upgrading of the agricultural industrial structure. What's more, develop differentiated trade policies and strengthen agricultural cooperation among regions to realize the optimization of the national agricultural industrial structure. (3) Enhance the technological innovation capacity of the agricultural trade department, take full advantage of the positive moderating role of technological innovation in agricultural trade in boosting the upgrading of the agricultural industrial structure, and accelerate the promotion of the optimization and upgrading of the agricultural industrial structure.