畜牧业规模适度性研究：基于调节与门槛效应的双重视角分析

DETERMINING THE OPTIMAL SCALE FOR LIVESTOCK FARMING: A DUAL ANALYSIS INCORPORATING MODERATION AND THRESHOLD EFFECTS

关键词:  畜牧业  技术效率  门槛效应  调节效应  适度规模

Key words:  livestock farming  technical efficiency  threshold effect  regulating effect  moderate scale

摘要:

目的 畜牧业适度规模是否存在阈值？为探究规模化养殖对畜牧业技术效率提升的具体作用路径以及规模化阈值存在性，分别分析区域畜牧优势、门槛值以及时期对规模化养殖提升效应的具体影响。方法 文章使用2011—2020年31个省（市、区，不含港澳台）的省级面板数据，依次使用调节效应、门槛效应以及一阶差分模型，实证检验了规模化对中国畜牧业技术效率的影响与作用。结果 （1）规模化养殖对畜牧业技术效率存在一定程度上的提升效应；（2）规模化养殖对畜牧业技术效率的提升效应受地区畜牧优势影响；（3）规模化对畜牧业技术效率的提升效应存在门槛值（68.8%），提升效应曲线为倒U型，且大、中、小规模化养殖均有相应的门槛值；（4）规模化养殖对畜牧业技术效率的进步存在学习效应。结论 中国畜牧业技术效率受规模化程度影响显著，且该影响受不同区域畜牧优势影响，且存在一定的门槛效应。

Abstract:

Livestock farming is an essential part of China's agricultural industry, contributing significantly to the country's economy and food security. However, the appropriate scale of livestock farming has been a subject of debate among policymakers and industry stakeholders. Based on the provincial panel data from 31 provinces (cities, autonomous regions, excluding Hong Kong, Macao, and Taiwan) between 2011 and 2020, this research aims to examine the effect and role of scale on the technical efficiency of China's livestock industry by using the moderation effect, threshold effect, and first-order difference model in sequence. The results were listed as follows. (1) Scaled farming had a positive effect on the technical efficiency of the livestock industry. (2) The enhancement effect of scaled farming on the technical efficiency of the livestock industry was influenced by the livestock advantage of the region. (3) This study also identified a threshold value of 68.8% for the enhancement effect of scale on the technical efficiency of the livestock industry. And the enhancement effect curve was inverted U-shaped, and there were the corresponding threshold values for large, medium, and small-scale farming. (4) Furthermore, this research highlighted the presence of a learning effect for the progress of the technical efficiency of the livestock industry through scaled farming. In summary, the technical efficiency of livestock industry is significantly affected by the degree of scaled farming, and this effect is influenced by the advantages of livestock industry in different regions, with a certain threshold effect in China.