中国农业新质生产力:生成机理、时空特征与区域差异

THE PRODUCTION MECHANISMS, SPATIAL AND TEMPORAL CHARACTERISTICS, AND REGIONAL DIFFERENCES OF AGRICULTURAL NEW QUALITY PRODUCTIVITY IN CHINA

关键词:  农业新质生产力  生成机理  动态演变  区域差异  空间自相关

Key words:  agricultural new quality productivity  production mechanism  dynamic evolution  regional differences  spatial autocorrelation

摘要:

目的 发展新质生产力是推动高质量发展的内在要求和重要举措，研究农业新质生产力内涵特征与生成机理，系统设计农业新质生产力评价指标体系，以便于把握我国农业新质生产力发展的现实基础与时空特征，加快我国农业新质生产力的培育。方法 文章以我国30个省（市、区，不含港澳台和西藏）为研究对象，采用熵值法测度2013—2022年我国农业新质生产力动态水平；运用Dagum基尼系数、Kernel密度估计、传统与空间马尔可夫链模型等方法进一步探究我国农业新质生产力的时空特征与区域差异。结果 （1）我国农业新质生产力发展水平整体处于测算值的低水平阶段，呈时间序列的递增态势；（2）我国农业新质生产力发展水平呈现东部地区＞西部地区＞中部地区＞东北地区的区域不平衡性特征，其差异主要来源于地区间差距和超变密度；（3）我国农业新质生产力发展的区域差距具有扩大趋势，东中部地区均存在明显的梯度差异，西部地区存在区域极化现象；（4）我国农业新质生产力发展始终保持着前行状态，并具有俱乐部趋同现象与空间溢出效应。结论 必须实施要素科技赋能、创新系统协同、量累质跃驱动与竞争合作追赶等战略工程。

Abstract:

The development of new quality productivity is an intrinsic requirement and an important initiative to promote high-quality development. This research systematically designs an evaluation index system of agricultural new quality productivity through the study of the connotation characteristics and production mechanisms of agricultural new quality productivity, in order to grasp the reality foundation and spatial and temporal characteristics of the development of agricultural new quality productivity in China, and to accelerate the cultivation of agricultural new quality productivity in China. Taking 30 provinces (cities, autonomous regions, excluding Hong Kong, Macao, Taiwan and Xizang) in China as research objects, this study adopted the entropy value method to measure the dynamic level of China's agricultural new quality productivity from 2013 to 2022, and applied the methods of Dagum Gini coefficient, Kernel density estimation, and the traditional and spatial Markov chain model to further explore the temporal and spatial characteristics and regional differences of China's agricultural new quality productivity. The results were listed as follows. (1) As a whole, China's agricultural new quality productivity development was at the low level of the measured value, showing an increasing trend in the time series; (2) China's agricultural new quality productivity development presented the regional imbalance characteristics. The order of the development level was the eastern region＞western region＞central region＞northeastern region, and the difference mainly came from the inter-regional disparity and hypervariable density; (3) The regional disparity in the development of agricultural new quality productivity in China had a widening trend, there were obvious gradient differences in eastern and central regions, and there was regional polarization in western regions; (4) China's agricultural new quality productivity had developed step by step and boasted the effect of club convergence and spatial spillover. Accordingly, it is necessary to implement strategic projects such as factor scientific and technological empowerment, innovation system synergy, quantity accumulation and quality leap, and mutual drive of competition and cooperation.