黑龙江省黑土区耕地利用系统脆弱性演变及影响因素研究

THE EVOLUTION AND INFLUENCING FACTORS OF VULNERABILITY OF ARABLE LAND UTILIZATION SYSTEM IN BLACK SOIL REGION OF HEILONGJIANG PROVINCE

关键词:  耕地利用系统  脆弱性  演变  影响因素  黑龙江省黑土区

Key words:  arable land utilization system  vulnerability  evolution  influencing factors  black soil area of Heilongjiang province

摘要:

目的 破解粮食主产区的耕地利用系统脆弱性问题，促进区域农业生产的良性循环，保障粮食安全。方法 文章基于暴露度—敏感性—适应能力框架构建了黑龙江省黑土区耕地利用系统脆弱性评价指标体系，测算2000—2020年的县域耕地利用系统脆弱性，分析系统脆弱性时空分异特征与演变规律，并借助障碍度模型和地理加权回归模型分别探索耕地利用系统脆弱性内部构成和外部因素对脆弱性的影响机理。结果 （1）2000—2020年研究区耕地利用系统的暴露度和敏感性呈升高态势，适应能力先升后降；研究期内脆弱性整体下降4%，变化特征与适应能力吻合，空间上呈西高东低的分布特征，分布特征与敏感性吻合。（2）黑龙江省黑土区耕地利用系统脆弱性具有明显的空间集聚特征，高脆弱性区县对周边地区的辐射作用显著，且作用力逐渐增强。（3）内部因素中，脆弱性降低的主要障碍因子集中在暴露度和敏感性指标；外部因素中，干旱指数、农地经营规模和夜间灯光指数对脆弱性的影响逐渐增强，土壤保持服务对其影响有所减弱。结论 耕地利用系统脆弱性降低受自然、人口和生产活动因素共同作用，应根据区县的耕地立地条件和当地农业经营主体结构等改善致脆因素。研究提出保育土壤侵蚀区、培育新型农业经营主体、完善黑土地监管等相关建议。研究结果旨在为黑土区的农业高质量生产工作提供决策支持。

Abstract:

The objective of this study is to address the vulnerability of arable land utilization system in main grain-producing areas, thereby promoting virtuous regional agricultural production and ensuring food security. In this paper, on the basis of the framework of exposure sensitivity adaptability, a vulnerability evaluation index system was constructed for the arable land utilization system in black soil area in Heilongjiang. Then, the vulnerability of the arable land utilization system at county level from 2000 to 2020 was estimated, followed by analysis of the spatiotemporal differentiation and evolution law of the system's vulnerability. At the same time, the barrier model and the geographic weighted regression model were used to explore the internal composition of the arable land utilization system and the influence mechanism of external factors on the vulnerability. The results were showed as follows. (1) From 2000 to 2020, the exposure and sensitivity of the arable land utilization system in the research area showed an upward trend, and the adaptability was first improved and then dropped. During the research period, the overall vulnerability decreased by 4%, where the characteristics of changes were consistent with the adaptability. In terms of spatial distribution, the vulnerability was high in the west and low in the east, which was consistent with the sensitivity. (2) The vulnerability of the arable land utilization system in the black soil area in Heilongjiang showed obvious spatial agglomeration. The areas with high vulnerability had significant effect on surrounding areas, and the effect was increasing. (3) Among internal factors, the main barriers to reduction of vulnerability were exposure and sensitivity; among external factors, the influence of drought index, agricultural land operation scale and night light index on vulnerability was increasing, but the influence of soil maintenance services was weakened. In summary, the reduction of the vulnerability of arable land utilization system is the result of a combination of factors, including the nature, population and production activities. Therefore, the causing factors of vulnerability should be improved according to local arable land standing conditions at site and the structure of the local agricultural business entities in each district and county. In this research, relevant suggestions are put forward, such as protection of areas with soil erosion, cultivation of new agricultural business entities, and improvement of the supervision of black soil areas. And the research results aim to provide decision-making support for high-quality agricultural production in the black soil areas.