数字经济、资源配置与农业产业韧性

THE IMPACT OF THE DIGITAL ECONOMY ON THE RESILIENCE OF THE AGRICULTURAL INDUSTRY FROM A RESOURCE ALLOCATION PERSPECTIVE

关键词:  农业产业韧性  数字经济  资源配置  农业强国  粮食安全

Key words:  agro-industrial resilience  digital economy  resource allocation  agriculture powerhouse  food security

摘要:

目的 产业韧性强是农业强国建设的基本保障。在当前错综复杂的国内外环境下，探究数字经济对农业产业韧性的影响，对增强农业产业韧性、加快建设农业强国具有重要意义。方法 文章利用2011—2021年中国省级面板数据构建农业产业韧性指标体系，并利用双向固定效应模型、门槛模型及空间计量模型实证分析数字经济对农业产业韧性的影响及内在机制。结果 （1）数字经济发展能够显著增强农业产业韧性，这一结论在经过一系列稳健性检验和内生性分析后依然成立。（2）门槛效应分析中，数字经济对农业产业韧性的提升作用会受到数字经济发展水平和城镇化水平的影响，表现出“边际效应”递减的非线性特征。（3）机制分析表明，农业劳动力错配与资本错配的中介效应恰好相反。数字经济主要通过改善农业劳动力错配、提高农业劳动力配置效率进而强化农业产业韧性。（4）异质性分析中，数字经济对农业产业韧性的提升作用存在区域异质性，在中西部地区和粮食主产区的促进作用更强。（5）空间效应分析中，农业产业韧性提升过程中数字经济的空间溢出效应得到证实。结论 为此，政府部门应实施动态化、差异化的数字经济发展战略，因地制宜改善信息基础设施条件，引导数字经济“三农”发展，增强农业产业韧性。

Abstract:

To build a robust agricultural sector, it's crucial to have strong industrial resilience. Therefore, it's important to study how the digital economy affects the resilience of the agricultural industry, especially in today's complex domestic and international environment. And this research will be helpful to strengthen the agricultural industry's resilience and speed up the development of a strong agricultural sector. Based on China's provincial panel data from 2011 to 2021, this study constructed a resilience index system for China's agricultural industry, and used the two-way fixed effect model, threshold model, and spatial model to empirically analyze the impact of the digital economy on the resilience of the agricultural industry and its internal mechanism. The results were showed as follows. (1) The development of the digital economy could significantly enhance the resilience of the agricultural industry remains valid after a series of robustness tests and endogeneity analysis. (2) The analysis of the threshold effect revealed that the resilience of the agricultural industry was influenced by the level of development of the digital economy and the level of urbanization. This relationship showed non-linear characteristics, specifically a diminishing “marginal effect”. (3) The mechanism analysis showed that the mediating effects of agricultural labor mismatch and capital mismatch were opposite. The digital economy mainly strengthened agricultural resilience by improving agricultural labor mismatch and increasing the efficiency of agricultural labor allocation. (4) The analysis of heterogeneity revealed regional variations in the impact of the digital economy on the resilience of the agricultural industry. Facilitation was observed to be more pronounced in the central and western regions, as well as in major food-producing areas. (5) The analysis confirmed that the digital economy had a spatial spillover effect that enhanced the resilience of the agricultural industry. In order to achieve this goal, government departments should implement a dynamic and differentiated strategy for the development of digital economy, improve information infrastructure according to local conditions, guide the development of the digital economy in “rural areas”, and enhance the resilience of the agricultural industry.