内蒙古草原畜牧业高质量发展时空变化特征及影响因素研究

SPATIOTEMPORAL CHANGES AND INFLUENCING FACTORS OF HIGH-QUALITY DEVELOPMENT IN INNER MONGOLIA'S GRASSLAND LIVESTOCK INDUSTRY

关键词:  草原畜牧业  高质量发展  空间计量模型  时空特征  影响因素

Key words:  grassland animal husbandry  high-quality development  spatial econometric model  spatiotemporal characteristics  influencing factors

摘要:

目的 科学分析内蒙古草原畜牧业高质量发展的时空变化规律及驱动机理，为推进我国畜牧业高质量发展构建新格局，加快建设国家重要农畜产品生产基地提供支持。方法 文章以新发展理念为指导，构建涵盖5个维度14个具体指标的草原畜牧业高质量发展评价指标体系，综合运用熵值TOPSIS模型、墨兰指数及空间计量模型，对2010—2022年内蒙古33个牧业旗县的草原畜牧业高质量发展水平进行评估，探究其发展水平及五大指标体系的时空变化规律特征，论证草原畜牧业的空间相关性、空间聚集特征及影响因素。结果 （1）内蒙古33个牧业旗县的草原畜牧业高质量发展水平差异较大；（2）内蒙古草原畜牧业高质量发展水平除2022年有所下降外，整体上呈现逐步上升态势，呈M型波动，且33个牧业旗县的时序变化差异较为明显。分维度看，创新能力、开放水平是内蒙古草原畜牧业高质量发展的短板；（3）内蒙古草原畜牧业高质量发展水平的空间变化特征整体呈现“东部高、中部低、西部较高”的格局。（4）从空间聚集模式看，内蒙古草原畜牧业高质量发展呈现显著的正空间相关性。“H—H”聚集旗县始终位于内蒙古东部，“L—L”聚集旗县常年分布于中部，“H—L”聚集旗县由西部逐渐向中部转移；（5）内蒙古各旗县草原畜牧业高质量发展具有一定空间溢出效应。结论 因地制宜发挥地方优势，实施联动发展战略；提升创新能力，培育草原畜牧业新质生产力；培育壮大龙头企业，打造特色产业集群；统筹区域经济布局，加强基础设施建设。

Abstract:

To scientifically analyze the spatiotemporal variation patterns and driving mechanisms of high-quality development in animal husbandry in the Inner Mongolia grasslands, and provide support for promoting a new framework for the high-quality development of animal husbandry in China and accelerating the construction of a major national agricultural and livestock product production base. Guided by the precepts of the new development philosophy, a comprehensive evaluation index system was meticulously constructed, including 5 overarching dimensions and 14 specific indicators, to gauge the high-quality development of pastoral animal husbandry on grasslands. And an integrated approach amalgamating the entropy value TOPSIS model, Moran's I index, and spatial econometric models was judiciously employed to conduct an empirical evaluation of the level of high-quality development of pastoral animal husbandry across 33 pastoral counties in Inner Mongolia, spanning the period from 2010 to 2022. The investigation delves into the temporal and spatial variation patterns inherent in the development level and the five major indicator systems, consequently elucidating the spatial correlation, spatial clustering characteristics, and influencing factors shaping pastoral animal husbandry. The results were showed as follows. (1) The assessment showed significant disparities in the level of high-quality development of pastoral animal husbandry among the 33 pastoral counties in Inner Mongolia, underscoring the heterogeneity of development trajectories across the region. (2) With the exception of a notable decline in 2022, the level of high-quality development of pastoral animal husbandry in Inner Mongolia exhibited a gradual upward trend overall, delineating an M-shaped fluctuation pattern. However, this overarching trend obscured significant temporal variations among the 33 pastoral counties, necessitating a nuanced examination. Scrutinizing the dimensional perspectives, innovation capability and openness level emerged as the Achilles' heel, impeding the high-quality development of pastoral animal husbandry in Inner Mongolia. (3) The spatial variation pattern of the level of high-quality development of pastoral animal husbandry in Inner Mongolia generally presented a layout characterized by elevated levels in the eastern region, depressed levels in the central region, and relatively higher levels in the western expanse. And an interrogation of the spatial clustering patterns revealed that the high-quality development of pastoral animal husbandry in Inner Mongolia exhibited a significant positive spatial autocorrelation. This manifested as the persistent concentration of "H—H" clustered counties in eastern Inner Mongolia, the enduring distribution of "L—L" clustered counties in the central region, and the gradual shift of "H—L" clustered counties from the western domain towards the central region. (4) The empirical analysis intimated that the high-quality development of pastoral animal husbandry in the various counties of Inner Mongolia exhibited a certain spatial spillover effect, transcending administrative boundaries and underscoring the interdependence of regional development trajectories. Therefore, to catalyze the high-quality development of pastoral animal husbandry, a multipronged strategy is advocated. First, it is imperative to adopt location-specific strategies that astutely leverage local advantages and endowments. Second, a coordinated development strategy that fosters synergies across sectors and regions must be implemented. Third, concerted efforts should be directed towards enhancing innovation capabilities and nurturing new productive forces within the pastoral animal husbandry sector. Fourth, the cultivation and consolidation of leading enterprises should be prioritized to establish characteristic industrial clusters that can catalyze growth and enhance competitiveness. Finally, a judicious optimization of regional economic layout coupled with a reinforcement of infrastructure is imperative to create an enabling environment for sustainable development.