中国肉牛产业竞争力水平区域差距及时序演变分析——基于“钻石模型”理论

REGIONAL DISPARITIES AND TEMPORAL EVOLUTION OF CHINA'S BEEF CATTLE INDUSTRY COMPETITIVENESS——BASED ON THE "DIAMOND MODEL" THEORY

关键词:  肉牛产业  竞争力  钻石模型  主成分分析  区域差异  时序演变

Key words:  beef cattle industry  competitiveness  diamond model  principal component analysis  regional differences  temporal evolution

摘要:

目的 中国肉牛产业近年来取得了显著进步，但仍面临供需矛盾、产业结构不合理、良种繁育体系落后、养殖技术水平低、养殖结构不平衡等问题。了解并提升肉牛产业的竞争力，不仅有助于进一步挖掘市场潜力，同时也是实现肉牛产业可持续发展的关键。方法 文章基于2012—2021年全国31个省（市、区，不含港澳台）的肉牛产业相关数据，以竞争优势理论为指导，依据波特的钻石模型，从生产要素、需求条件、相关与支持性产业、产业结构及竞争对手、政府影响要素5个维度构建了我国肉牛产业竞争力评价指标体系，并运用主成分分析法进行区域差距及时序演变分析。结果 （1）我国肉牛产业竞争力较强的省份集中在西部地区，2021年排名前十的地区依次为内蒙古、西藏、新疆、云南、青海、四川、甘肃、河北、山东和河南；（2）从10年间肉牛产业竞争力的年际变化看，内蒙古、青海和新疆显著提升，而河南、湖北和山东有所下降；（3）西部地区整体保持上升趋势且稳居首位，东北地区和中部地区经历波动后缓慢增长，东部地区发展平稳。结论 提升我国肉牛产业竞争力水平需要完善品种改良和繁育体系建设、推动肉牛良种繁育和推广、强化草原保护和建设、深化饲料资源开发、增进地区间交流等措施。

Abstract:

China's beef cattle industry has made significant progress in recent years, but it still faces problems such as supply and demand imbalances, unreasonable industrial structure, outdated breeding system of improved varieties, low level of breeding technology, and unbalanced breeding structure. Understanding and improving the competitiveness of the beef cattle industry will not only help further tap the market potential, but also is the key to achieving sustainable development of the beef cattle industry. Based on beef cattle industry data from 31 provinces, cities, and autonomous regions across China from 2012 to 2021, guided by competitive advantage theory and Porter's Diamond Model, this study constructed an evaluation index system for China's beef cattle industry competitiveness from five dimensions: production factors, demand conditions, related and supporting industries, industrial structure and competitors, and government influence factors, and applied the principal component analysis to analyze regional disparities and temporal evolution. The results were showed as follows. (1) Provinces with strong competitiveness in China's beef cattle industry were concentrated in the western region. The top ten provinces in 2021 in order, were Inner Mongolia, Tibet, Xinjiang, Yunnan, Qinghai, Sichuan, Gansu, Hebei, Shandong and Henan. (2) Looking at the interannual variability of beef cattle industry competitiveness over the past decade, Inner Mongolia, Qinghai, and Xinjiang showed significant improvements, while Henan, Hubei, and Shandong had declined. (3) The western region maintained an overall upward trend and ranked the first, while the northeast and central regions experienced slow growth after fluctuations, and the eastern region developed steadily. Therefore, to enhance the competitiveness of China's beef cattle industry, it is essential to improve variety improvement and breeding system construction, promote the breeding and promotion of high-quality beef cattle breeds, strengthen grassland protection and construction, deepen the development of feed resources, and enhance inter regional exchanges.