中国农村基础设施资本回报率测度、空间差异与动态演进

MEASUREMENT, SPATIAL DIFFERENCE AND DYNAMIC EVOLUTION OF THE RETURN ON RURAL INFRASTRUCTURE CAPITAL IN CHINA

关键词:  农村基础设施  资本存量  资本回报率  空间差异  动态演进

Key words:  rural infrastructure  capital stock  return on capital  spatial difference  dynamic evolution

摘要:

目的 农村基础设施投资效率的提升是实现农业农村高质量发展和全面推进乡村振兴的重要基础，深入分析我国农村基础设施资本回报率的空间差异与动态演进有助于厘清农村基础设施投资效率的变动情况，并为乡村振兴战略的深入实施提供决策参考。方法 文章基于非传统途径的永续盘存法核算中国农村基础设施的生产性资本存量，运用生产函数法系统测算1981—2022年全国层面以及1996—2022年省级层面的农村基础设施资本回报率，并利用Dagum基尼系数、σ收敛和β收敛模型探究其空间差异和动态演进。结果 （1）农村基础设施资本存量不断攀升而其资本回报率总体呈下降趋势，资本存量和资本回报率分别呈现“东高西低”“东低西高”的空间分布格局；（2）农村基础设施资本回报率的总体差异呈现先降后升的“U”形演变趋势，超变密度是其空间差异的主要来源；（3）东部地区的区域差异最为突出但具有σ收敛特征，全国、各地区、各阶段的农村基础设施资本回报率均具有绝对β收敛和条件β收敛特征，但收敛速度存在显著时空异质性。结论 为实现农业农村的高质量发展以及区域的均衡发展，应从片面强调农村基础设施投资规模向全面把握农村基础设施投资规模和投资效率的目标上转变，并破解资本回报率区域差异之困局。

Abstract:

Improving the efficiency of investment in rural infrastructure is an important basis for achieving high-quality development of agriculture and promoting rural revitalization comprehensively. In-depth analysis of the spatial difference and dynamic evolution of the return on China’s rural infrastructure capital is helpful to clarify the efficiency change of rural infrastructure investment and provide a decision-making reference for the implementation of rural revitalization strategy. This research calculated the productive capital stock of China’s rural infrastructure based on the non-traditional perpetual inventory method, and used the production function method to systematically estimate the return on rural infrastructure capital from 1981 to 2022 at the national level and from 1996 to 2022 at the provincial level, then adopted the Dagum Gini coefficient, σ convergence and β convergence models to explore the spatial differences and dynamic evolution. The results were showed as follows. (1) The capital stock of rural infrastructure continued to rise while the return on capital generally declined. The spatial distribution pattern of capital stock was “high in the east and low in the west” , while the return on capital was “low in the east and high in the west”. (2) The overall difference of return on rural infrastructure capital showed a U-shaped evolution trend of decreasing firstly and then increasing. Supervariable density was the main source of spatial difference. The regional differences in the eastern region were the most prominent but had σ convergence characteristic. The return on rural infrastructure capital had the characteristics of absolute β convergence and conditional β convergence in the whole country, all regions and all stages. While the convergence rate had significant spatiotemporal heterogeneity. Therefore, in order to achieve the high-quality development of agriculture and the balanced development of regions, it is necessary to change the focus from one-sided emphasis on the scale of investment to a comprehensive grasp of the scale and efficiency of investment in rural infrastructure, and solve the dilemma of regional differences in capital return.