山东省粮食供需现状及粮食增产驱动因素分析

THE CURRENT SITUATION OF GRAIN SUPPLY AND DEMAND IN SHANDONG PROVINCE AND ITS DRIVERS OF GRAIN PRODUCTION INCREASE

关键词:  山东省  粮食生产  粮食消费  粮食安全贡献度  贡献因素

Key words:  Shandong province  grain production  grain consumption  food security contribution  contribution factors

摘要:

目的 定量分析山东省粮食安全贡献度年度变化以及山东省粮食产量变化的主要影响因素，以期为进一步保障粮食安全，提出针对性的粮食增产策略。方法 文章基于2000—2022年山东省粮食生产和消费数据，综合运用区域重心分析法、粮食安全贡献度模型分析了山东省粮食供需变化和粮食安全现状，并进一步运用对数平均迪氏分解模型考察了山东省粮食产量变化的主要影响因素。结果 （1）从粮食生产看，山东省粮食播种面积和产量整体均呈波动增长态势，但不同粮食作物间播种面积和产量变化存在明显差异。（2）从粮食消费看，山东省粮食消费总量稳中有增，但粮食消费结构已逐渐由以口粮消费为主转变为以饲料粮为代表的间接用粮消费为主。（3）从粮食安全保障程度看，近年来山东省口粮安全一直得到有效保障，但饲料粮和工业用粮安全保障程度仍较低，面临着较大风险。（4）从粮食增产路径看，粮食单产水平、粮作比例、复种指数、农业水土资源以及农业产值因素均正向影响粮食产量，而农业产值耗水量负向影响粮食产量。（5）分作物看，小麦和玉米产量增加分别主要由小麦单产水平提升和玉米播种面积增加导致，而稻谷、大豆和薯类产量的减少均主要由其播种面积减少所致。结论 山东省应坚持藏粮于地、藏粮于技，实行严格的耕地保护制度，推动种业科技自立自强，并在稳定发展小麦、玉米等主粮作物的同时，注重调优品种结构。

Abstract:

Based on the grain production and consumption data of Shandong province from 2000 to 2022, this research quantitatively analyse the annual changes in the contribution to food security in Shandong province as well as the main factors influencing the changes in Shandong province's grain production, with a view to proposing targeted strategies to increase grain production in order to further safeguard food security.This study analyzed the changes in grain supply and demand and the current status of food security in Shandong province by using a combination of the regional centre of gravity analysis and food security contribution model, and further examined the main influencing factors of the changes in grain production in Shandong province by using LMDI model. The results were listed as follows. (1) From the perspective of grain production, the sown area and output of grain in Shandong province as a whole showed fluctuating growth, but there were obvious differences in the changes in the sown area and output of different grain crops. （2）From the perspective of grain consumption, the total amount of grain consumption in Shandong province increased steadily, but the structure of grain consumption gradually changed from being mainly based on grain rations to being mainly based on indirect grain consumption represented by feed grains.(3) In terms of the degree of food security, in recent years, the safety of grain rations in Shandong province had been effectively guaranteed, but the degree of safety and security of feed grains and industrial grains was still low and faced greater risks.(4) From the perspective of the path of grain production increase, the level of grain yields, grain-crop ratio, replanting index, agricultural water and soil resources, and agricultural output factors all positively affected grain production, while the amount of water consumed in agricultural output negatively affected grain production. (5) Furtherly, from the perspective of different crops, the increase of wheat and maize production was mainly caused by the improvement of wheat yield level and the increase of maize sowing area respectively, while the decrease of rice, soybean and potato production was mainly caused by the decrease of their sowing area. Therefore, Shandong province should adhere to hide grain in the land, hide grain in technology, the implementation of the most stringent arable land protection system, to promote the seed industry science and technology self-reliance and self-reliance, and in the stable development of wheat, corn and other staple crops at the same time, focusing on optimising the varietal structure.