农户应对干旱适应性行为的粮食产出及风险效应分析——基于黄淮海地区数据

EFFECTS OF FARMERS' ADAPTIVE BEHAVIORS TO DROUGHT ON GRAIN OUTPUT AND RISK——BASED ON DATA FROM THE HUANG-HUAI-HAI REGION

关键词:  应对干旱适应性行为  灾前预防  灾后补救  粮食产出风险  多项内生转换模型

Key words:  adaptive behaviors to drought  pre-disaster prevention  post-disaster remediation  grain production risk  multinomial endogenous switching regression model

摘要:

目的 探究农户采取应对干旱适应性行为（包括灾前预防与灾后补救）对粮食产出及风险的影响，并分析两类行为的协同效应及其差异，以期为增强农业抗旱韧性提供决策参考。方法 文章基于期望效用理论构建投入产出分析框架，利用黄淮海地区（河南、山东、河北）747个农户的两期追踪面板数据，运用多项内生转换模型，评估农户采取应对干旱适应性行为对小麦产量和产出风险，并通过平均处理效应对比分析灾前预防和灾后补救适应行为协同作用与差异化影响。结果 （1）农户对旱灾损失的感知和家庭特征等会影响农户适应性行为的选择。（2）农户采取应对干旱适应性行为可以有效减少小麦产量损失，降低小麦产出风险。（3）同时采取灾前预防适应性行为和灾后补救适应性行为具有明显的协同互补效应，在应对干旱时能够实现产量最大化和风险最小化的双重目标，且单独采用灾前预防效果优于灾后补救。结论 因此，应构建系统性旱灾风险管理系统，通过建立完善气象预警体系和农业保险体系等强化灾前预防与灾后补救的协同效应。同时，通过示范引导、教育培训等提升农户适应能力和政策执行力，增强其应对干旱的主动性和有效性。

Abstract:

To explore the impact of farmers' adaptive behaviors in response to drought (including pre-disaster prevention and post-disaster remediation) on grain output and risk, and to analyze the synergy and differences between the two types of behaviors, with the aim of providing a decision-making reference for enhancing agricultural drought resilience. Based on the expected utility theory, an input-output analytical framework was constructed. And using two-period tracking panel data of 1 494 farmers in the Huang-Huai-Hai region (Henan, Shandong and Hebei provinces), multiple endogenous switching model was employed to evaluate farmers' adaptation behaviors in response to drought-resistant on wheat yield and output risk, and the synergy and differential effects of pre-disaster prevention and post-disaster remediation adaptation behaviors was compared and analyzed through the average treatment effect. The results were showed as follows. (1) Farmers' perception of drought losses and family characteristics would affect their adaptive behavior choice. (2) Farmers' adoption of drought-resistant adaptive behaviors effectively reduced wheat yield losses and lower the risk of wheat yield. (3) The simultaneous adoption of adaptive behaviors for pre-disaster prevention and post-disaster remediation had an obvious synergistic and complementary effect, which achieved the dual goals of maximizing yield and minimizing risks in response to drought. And the effect of pre-drought prevention was superior to that of post-drought remediation when used alone. Therefore, it is necessary to build a systematic drought risk management system, and strengthen the synergistic effect of pre-disaster prevention and post-disaster remediation by establishing and improving the meteorological early warning system and agricultural insurance system. At the same time, farmers' adaptability and policy implementation should be improved through demonstration guidance, education and training to enhance their initiative and effectiveness in coping with drought.