大食物观下食物承载力结构性耦合、时空演化与驱动因素研究

THE STRUCTURAL COUPLING, TEMPORAL AND SPATIAL EVOLUTION AND DRIVING FACTORS OF FOOD CARRYING CAPACITY UNDER THE VIEW OF BIG FOOD

关键词:  食物承载力  大食物观  结构性耦合  时空演化  空间杜宾模型

Key words:  food carrying capacity  big food view  structural coupling  spatiotemporal evolution  spatial dobbin model

摘要:

目的 为了客观地评价食物承载力结构性耦合状态，构建以能量、脂肪、蛋白质等营养物质为基础的食物承载力结构性耦合指标体系分析框架，为中国实现粮食安全提供科学依据。方法 文章利用2000—2020年5期中国329个地级市面板数据，运用全局Moran's I、Moran散点图、LISA集聚图和空间杜宾模型等方法，分析大食物观下食物承载力结构性耦合指数分布特征、时空演化与驱动因素。结果 （1）中国地级市食物承载力结构性耦合指数整体呈上升趋势，但增速明显放缓，存在区域差异，华中、东北地区的食物承载力结构性耦合指数较高，华东、华南、西北和西南地区较低，华北地区处于中国平均水平。（2）中国地级市食物承载力结构性耦合指数呈现正向空间关联与两极集聚，高值集聚现象更为明显。高—高集聚区集中于东北、华北及华中；低—低集聚区分布于西南、西北及长三角等。空间不均衡性显著，整体格局稳定但局部动态调整，凸显“北高南低、核心城市群低洼”特征。（3）粮食产量、肉类产量、劳动力人口占比、城镇化率和粮食播种面积促进了食物承载力结构性耦合指数提升，常住人口抑制了食物承载力结构性耦合指数增长。结论 中国地级市食物承载力结构性耦合指数时空分异特征明显，为实现粮食安全，提出了改善农业基础设施，加快高标准农田建设；实施差异化食物承载力政策；控制城镇面积，推动区域协同发展等建议。

Abstract:

In order to objectively evaluate the structural coupling state of food carrying capacity and build an analysis framework of the structural coupling index system of food carrying capacity based on nutrients such as energy, fat and protein is constructed, providing scientific basis for China to achieve food security. Using the panel data of 329 prefecture level cities in China from 2000 to 2020, the distribution characteristics, temporal and spatial evolution and driving factors of the structural coupling index of food carrying capacity under the macro food view were analyzed by using global Moran's I, Moran scatter diagram, Lisa agglomeration diagram and spatial Dubin model. The study found that: (1) The structural coupling index of food carrying capacity in prefecture level cities in China showed an overall upward trend, but the growth rate slowed down significantly, and there were regional differences. The structural coupling index of food carrying capacity in Central China and Northeast China was higher, while that in East China, South China, northwest and southwest China was lower, and North China was at the average level in China. (2) The structural coupling index of food carrying capacity of prefecture level cities in China showed positive spatial correlation and two pole agglomeration, and the phenomenon of high-value agglomeration was more obvious. HH concentrated in Northeast, North and central China; LL area was distributed in southwest, northwest and Yangtze River Delta. The spatial imbalance was significant, and the overall pattern was stable but partially dynamically adjusted, highlighting the characteristics of "high in the north and low in the south, and low-lying core urban agglomeration". (3) Grain production, meat production, proportion of labor population, urbanization rate and grain planting area promoted the increase of the structural coupling index of food carrying capacity, while the resident population inhibited the growth of the structural coupling index of food carrying capacity. In summary, the spatial-temporal characteristics of the structural coupling index of food carrying capacity in prefecture level cities in China are obvious. In order to ensure national food security, it is proposed to improve agricultural infrastructure, speed up the construction of high standard farmland, implement differentiated food carrying capacity policy, and control urban area while promote regional coordinated development.