农业生产性服务对农业碳排放效率的影响——基于中介效应和门槛效应的检验

THE IMPACT OF AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTIVE SERVICES ON AGRICULTURAL CARBON EMISSION EFFICIENCY*——AN EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS OF MEDIATING AND THRESHOLD EFFECTS

关键词:  农业生产性服务  农业碳排放效率  农业技术进步  中介效应  门槛效应

Key words:  agricultural productive services  agricultural carbon emission efficiency  agricultural technology progress  mediating effect  threshold effect

摘要:

目的 探究农业生产性服务对农业碳排放效率的具体影响及其作用机制对实现“双碳”目标具有重要的理论与现实意义。方法 文章基于2005—2022年省级面板数据，对各省农业碳排放效率进行测算，而后构建双向固定效应模型、中介效应模型和门槛效应模型考察农业生产性服务对农业碳排放效率的影响及其作用机制。结果 （1）中国省际农业碳排放效率呈现较为明显的“东高西低”特征。样本考察期内，除上海以外其余29省市区的农业碳排放效率均呈上升趋势且以浙江增幅最大。（2）农业生产性服务与农业碳排放效率之间存在“Ｎ”型的正向加速关系，即随着农业生产性服务水平的提升，农业碳排放效率表现出“先增、后降、再增”的三阶段特征且最终表现为正向影响。（3）农业生产性服务通过促进农业技术进步，从而实现农业碳排放效率的提升，其中介作用份额占比12.2%。（4）农业生产性服务对农业碳排放效率的影响存在土地经营规模门槛，随着土地经营规模扩大，农业生产性服务对农业碳排放效率的促进作用会出现边际效应递增的单门槛非线性特征。结论 应大力培育农业生产性服务，助力农业生产低碳化发展。

Abstract:

Exploring the impact of agricultural production services on agricultural carbon emission efficiency and its mechanism is of great theoretical and practical significance for realizing the goal of“double carbon”. Based on the provincial panel data from 2005 to 2022, we measured the agricultural carbon emission efficiency of each province, and constructed the two-way fixed effect model, the mediation effect model and the threshold effect model to investigate the impact of agricultural productive services on agricultural carbon emission efficiency and its functioning mechanism. The results were showed as follows. (1) China's inter-provincial agricultural carbon emission efficiency was characterized by a relatively obvious“high in the east and low in the west”. During the sample period, except for Shanghai, the agricultural carbon emission efficiencies of the other 29 provinces (municipality, autonomous region) showed an upward trend, and the largest increase was in Zhejiang.(2) There was an N-shaped positive ACEleration relationship between agricultural production services and agricultural carbon emission efficiency, that was, as the level of agricultural production services improved, agricultural carbon emission efficiency showed a three-stage characteristic of “increasing, decreasing, and then increasing”, and ultimately showed a positive impact on agricultural carbon emission efficiency. (3)Agricultural production services promoted the progress of agricultural technology, thus realizing the improvement of agricultural carbon emission efficiency, and its intermediary role share accounted for 12.2%.(4) The influence of agricultural productive services on agricultural carbon emission efficiency had a threshold of land operation scale, and with the expansion of land operation scale, the promotion effect of agricultural productive services on agricultural carbon emission efficiency would be characterized by a single-threshold non-linear characteristic of increasing marginal effect. Therefore, agricultural production services should be vigorously cultivated to help the development of low-carbon agricultural production.