京津冀地区农业减污降碳增效协同：时空演变及影响因素研究

SYNERGY OF AGRICULTURAL POLLUTION REDUCTION AND CARBON REDUCTION IN BEIJING-TIANJIN-HEBEI REGION: TEMPORAL AND SPATIAL EVOLUTION AND INFLUENCING FACTORS

关键词:  农业减污降碳  增效协同  耦合协调度模型  京津冀地区  空间计量模型

Key words:  agricultural pollution reduction and carbon reduction  synergy  coupling coordination model  Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region  spatial econometric model

摘要:

目的 农业减污降碳增效协同推进是我国新发展阶段农业绿色转型的必然选择。农业作为京津冀地区的重要产业，农业减污降碳增效是否协同及其深层影响机制的剖析对于产业均衡发展及地区协同具有重要意义。方法 文章基于2000－2022年京津冀地区面板数据，创新性地将降污、降碳与产业发展结合起来，利用耦合协调度模型、空间误差模型及空间滞后模型对农业减污降碳增效协同及其影响机制进行实证分析。结果 （1）2000－2022年京津冀地区农业面源污染和农业碳排放量均呈现先缓慢增长后快速下降的趋势，农业产值呈现先缓慢上升后快速上升的趋势，说明农业发展正在由高污染、高碳排放和高产量的“粗放式”发展模式向减污降碳协同增效的模式过渡。（2）农业减污降碳增效协调度呈现不断上升的演变趋势。从空间维度看，减污降碳增效耦合协调度存在明显的空间集聚性；从时间维度看，减污降碳增效耦合度和耦合协调度均呈现“阶梯式”增长态势。（3）财政支农、创新与技术发展水平对农业减污降碳增效协同呈现负向影响作用，整体产业发展程度、作物种植结构与农业投资强度则产生正向促进作用。结论 基于研究结果，京津冀地区农业减污降碳增效协同度有一定的提升空间，各地区要因地制宜并加强区域合作，推动农业协同减排高效发展。

Abstract:

It's an inevitable choice for promoting synergy of agricultural pollution reduction, carbon reduction and efficiency enhancement in new stage of China's agricultural green transformation. Agriculture, as an important industry in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region, it is of great significance to analyze the synergy of agricultural pollution reduction, carbon reduction and efficiency improvement and its deep influencing mechanism for the balanced industrial development and regional cooperation. Based on the panel data in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region from 2000 to 2022, this research integrated pollution reduction, carbon reduction and industrial development innovatively. And it utilized the coupling coordination degree model, spatial error model, and spatial lag model to empirically analyze the synergy of agricultural pollution reduction, carbon reduction and efficiency improvement, as well as its impact mechanism. The results indicated that: (1) From 2000 to 2022, both agricultural non-point source pollution and agricultural carbon emissions showed a trend of slow growth followed by a rapid decline, and agricultural output value demonstrated a trend of gradual increase followed by a sharp surge, suggesting that agricultural development was shifting from an extensive development model characterized by high pollution, high carbon emissions and high yield to a synergistic model of pollution reduction and carbon reduction and efficiency enhancement in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region. (2) The coupling synergy of agricultural pollution reduction and carbon reduction showed an increasing trend. From the spatial perspective, there was an obvious spatial agglomeration of the coupling coordination degree. From the temporal perspective, the coupling degree and coupling coordination degree exhibited a "step-like" growth trend. (3) The level of financial support for agriculture, innovation and technological development had a negative impact on the synergy of agricultural pollution reduction and carbon reduction. While, the overall level of industrial development, crop planting structure and agricultural investment intensity had a positive promoting effect. Therefore, based on the research results, there is potential for improvement in the synergy of agricultural pollution reduction and carbon reduction in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region. Each region should adapt to local conditions and enhance regional cooperation to promote the efficient development of agricultural synergy and emission reduction.