未来气候情景下黑龙江农业气候生产潜力时空变化趋势及影响因素分析

SPATIOTEMPORAL VARIATION AND INFLUENCING FACTORS OF AGRICULTURE CLIMATIC PRODUCTION POTENTIAL IN HEILONGJIANG PROVINCE UNDER FUTURE CLIMATE SCENARIOS

关键词:  黑龙江  气候生产潜力  气候变化  未来气候  农作物

Key words:  Heilongjiang  climate production potential  climate change  future climate  crops

摘要:

目的 不断加剧的气候变化对作物的生长发育和产量具有复杂影响。黑龙江省作为中国重要的粮食主产区，其作物气候生产潜力受气候变化的影响存在争议。因此，有必要探究未来气候生产潜力的变化以及气候因子对其产生的影响。方法 文章通过GAZE模型模拟2020—2100年未来黑龙江省4种情景（SP245、SSP434、SSP460、SSP585）下玉米、大豆和水稻的气候生产潜力。利用MK趋势性分析和多元线性回归分析探究潜力的时空变化趋势以及气候因素（温度和降雨）对潜力的影响。结果 （1）未来4种情景下，黑龙江省3种作物的气候生产潜力在时间上均呈现增长趋势，4种情景下平均增加了5.7%、15.6%、16.5%和10.2%。空间上，潜力呈现东高西低的空间分布，西南地区潜力明显偏低。（2）温度在未来80年内平均上升了2.4℃，空间上呈现南高北低的分布；降雨平均上升了25 mm，空间上呈现东高西低的分布。降雨的年际波动和增长情况剧烈，最大增加幅度为64%，下降幅度为30%。（3）温度和降雨在4种情景下平均对黑龙江省67.7%和76.9%区域的气候生产潜力起显著正向影响，而受负向影响的区域较小且主要集中在高温少雨的西南地区。温度所产生的正面效应依赖于充足降雨，当降雨不足时，温度升高对潜力产生负面影响。结论 未来黑龙江省气候生产潜力整体有所增长，西部地区气候生产潜力偏低且受到高温和少雨综合的负面影响。对此，可以重点关注水资源缺乏地区，有效的水资源管理和利用措施，可以提高西部地区作物潜力，实现黑龙江全省农业的可持续发展。

Abstract:

The intensification of climate change have complex impacts on crop growth and yield. Heilongjiang province is one of the major grain producing areas in China, and there is controversy over the impact of climate change on its climate production potential (CPP). Therefore, it is necessary to explore the changes in future CPP and the impact of climate factors. The GAZE model was employed to simulate the CPP of maize, soybean, and rice under four future scenarios (2020-2100) (SP245, SSP434, SSP460, and SSP585), and MK trend analysis and multiple linear regression analysis were used to explore the spatiotemporal trend in CPP and the impact of climatic factors (temperature and rainfall) on CPP. The results showed that: (1) Under the four future scenarios, the CPP in Heilongjiang province showed an increasing trend over time, with an average increase of 5.7%、15.6%、16.5% and 10.2% in each scenario. In terms of space, CPP had a spatial distribution of high in the east and low in the west, with a significantly low CPP in the southwest. (2) Temperature would increase by an average of 2.4°C in the next 80 years, showing a spatial distribution of high in the south and low in the north. Rainfall would increase by an average of 25 mm, showing a spatial distribution of high in the east and low in the west, and its inter-annual fluctuation and increase would be drastic, with a maximum increase and decrease of 64% and of 30% respectively. (3) Under the four scenarios, the temperature and rainfall significantly increased the CPP of 67.7% and 76.9% of cropland in Heilongjiang province under four scenarios, while the areas negatively affected were relatively small and mainly concentrated in the southwestern region with high temperature and low rainfall. The positive effect of temperature on CPP depended on sufficient rainfall, and an increase in temperature could have a negative impact on CPP when rainfall was insufficient. Overall, the CPP in Heilongjiang province will increase in the future, while the CPP in the western region was relatively low, negatively affected by high temperature and low rainfall. In this regard, special attention can be paid to areas with water scarcity, and effective water resource management and utilization strategies may improve CPP in western regions and achieve sustainable development of agriculture in Heilongjiang province.