| 摘要: |
| 目的 中国与印度之间的双边关系一直对亚洲乃至全球的经济发展格局产生深远影响，将地区划分为中国、印度和其他国家3个部分，分别通过关税和非关税贸易壁垒的变化分析对中印两国和其他国家的经济影响，研究其农业合作对促进双边关系具有及其重要的意义。方法 文章依托GTAP（第十版）数据库，动态模拟分析中印农业开放合作背景下，两国的经济效应的动态变化。结果 模拟结果显示，加强中印农业开放合作将带来显著的经济成效：两国的GDP水平得到提升，非农就业率随之提高，社会福利进一步增进，生产结构得以优化，促进贸易规模的扩大。在农产品贸易领域，中国的劳动密集型农产品展现出显著的比较优势，相比之下，印度在土地密集型农产品的生产与发展上拥有巨大的潜力。结论 为促进中印两国农业开放合作，应增强中印两国政治互信；明确合作发展规划，完善政策支持体系；优化农产品贸易结构。 |
| 关键词: 中印 农产品贸易 GTAP模型 农业合作开放 经济效应 |
| DOI：10.7621/cjarrp.1005-9121.20251021 |
| 分类号:F313 |
| 基金项目:国家社科基金重点项目“健全城乡融合发展机制研究”（21AZD035）；中国农业科学院科技创新工程（10-IAED-04-2024） |
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| ECONOMIC IMPACT ANALYSIS OF AGRICULTURAL OPENING-UP COOPERATION BETWEEN CHINA AND INDIA |
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Zhao Yining1,2, Qi Xin3, Zhang Xinrui4, Chen Jueying4
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1.Institute of Agricultural Economics and Development , Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Beijing 100081, China;2.Sunwah International Business School, Liaoning University, Shenyang 110136, Liaoning, China;3.School of Agriculture Economics and Rural Development, Renmin University of China, Beijing 100872, China;4.Institute of Agricultural Economics and Development , Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Beijing 100081, China
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| Abstract: |
| The Sino-India bilateral relationship has exerted far-reaching influence on the economic development in Asia as well as the world. This research divides the world into three parts, namely China, India and other countries, using changes in the tariff and non-tariff barriers in trade to analyze the economic effects among China, India and other countries, and further explores the impact of agricultural cooperation between China and India on the bilateral relationship. Based on the GTAP (10th edition) database, this study simulated and analyzed the dynamic changes of the economic effects of the two countries in the context of China-India agricultural opening-up cooperation. The simulation results showed that strengthening the China-India agricultural open-cooperation was expected to bring significant economic effects. The GDP of both countries and the non-farm employment rate increased significantly, the social welfare could be further improved, the production structure could be optimized, and the scale of trade was expanded. In terms of agricultural trade, China's labor-intensive agricultural products had a significant comparative advantage while India had a huge potential in the production and development of land-intensive agricultural products. Therefore, to further promote agricultural open-up cooperation between China and India, it is suggested to strengthen the political mutual trust between the two countries, clarify cooperation and development plans, enhance the policy support system, and optimize the structure of agricultural products trade. |
| Key words: China and India agricultural products trade GTAP model agricultural cooperation and opening-up economic effects |
