中国食物安全水平的区域差异及关键驱动因素研究

REGIONAL DISPARITIES AND KEY DRIVERS OF FOOD SECURITY IN CHINA

关键词:  食物安全  区域差异  驱动因素  评价指标体系  大食物观

Key words:  food security  regional differences  driving force  evaluation index system  all-encompassing approach to food

摘要:

目的 区域协调发展是实现食物安全目标的基本遵循。方法 文章基于可供性、可控性、可补（替）性、可达性、可得性及可持续性等6个维度构建中国食物安全指标体系，采用熵值法测度2010—2022年中国食物安全水平，在此基础上，运用Dagum基尼系数和Kernel密度方法揭示其区域差距的空间来源和演进趋势，并借助Kaya恒等式与LMDI因素分解方法揭示其动态变化的驱动效应。结果 （1）中国食物安全整体水平呈现持续上升趋势，整体水平较高，但存在空间不平衡现象，整体呈现“黄淮海—东北—长江中下游—其他地区”依次递减态势。（2）从相对差距看，全国总体食物安全水平的内部差异呈缩小态势，而东北区域、黄淮海区域、长江中下游区域和其他区域的区域内差异则呈扩大态势。从区域间差异看，四大区域食物安全水平的组间差异呈现波动式缓慢下降趋势，表明区域间食物安全发展水平的相对差异均得到缓解。从空间差异的来源贡献分析看，区域间差异是总体差异的主要来源。（3）从绝对差距看，中国总体、东北区域和其他区域的内部绝对差异呈现微弱的扩大态势，黄淮海区域和长江中下游区域则呈收窄态势。（4）从驱动因素看，经济效应、产业结构效应、土地利用强度效应和资源禀赋效应的协同作用使中国总体和四大区域的食物安全水平波动提升。其中，经济效应和资源禀赋效应具有显著的正向驱动作用，产业结构效应和土地利用强度效应虽表现为负向驱动效应，但负向驱动力均趋于减弱态势。结论 为进一步提升中国食物安全水平，应统筹“大食物观”理念创新，强化耕地和科技双轮驱动，推进区域协调发展。

Abstract:

Coordinated development is a core technique for ensuring food security. This study developed a comprehensive food security assessment paradigm for China, based on six important dimensions: affordability, controllability, substitutability, accessibility, availability, and sustainability. Employing the entropy method, it estimated China's food security status from 2010 to 2022. Subsequently, it analyzed the spatial origins and temporal evolution of regional food security disparities by employing the Dagum Gini coefficient and Kernel density estimation techniques. And to further, it examined the dynamics driving these disparities with the Kaya identity and logarithmic mean divisia index (LMDI) factor decomposition method. The results listed four key findings: (1) China's overall food security level had consistently improved over the examined period and remained relatively high, however, regional disparities persist. Spatially, food security levels decline in the order: Huang-Huai-Hai Region-Northeast Region-Middle and Lower Reaches of the Yangtze River Region-Other Regions. (2) In terms of relative disparities, intranational differences in food security had generally narrowed, while intraregional differences within the Northeast, Huang-Huai-Hai, Middle and Lower Reaches of the Yangtze River, and other regions had expanded. Interregional disparities, however, had shown a gradual and fluctuating decrease, indicating a convergence in the food security levels among regions. And interregional differences remained the main contributor to overall spatial disparities in food security. (3) Concerning absolute disparities, the internal absolute differences within China, the Northeast Region, and other regions had slightly expanded, whereas those in the Huang-Huai-Hai and the Middle and Lower Yangtze River Regions had decreased. (4) Examining the driving factors behind food security trends, the findings revealed that economic growth, industrial structure, land use intensity, and resource endowment had collectively contributed to variations in food security levels across China and its four main regions. Notably, economic growth and resource endowment showed significant positive impacts, while the industrial structure and land use intensity had shown negative, though gradually weakening, effects on food security. Therefore, to further enhance China's food security, this study suggests an "all-encompassing approach to food " that integrates innovative concepts, emphasizing strengthened arable land protection, technological advancement, and supporting coordinated regional development.