极端天气风险对农民收入质量的影响研究——基于直接影响与空间溢出双重视角

THE IMPACT OF EXTREME WEATHER RISKS ON THE QUALITY OF FARMERS' INCOME——BASED ON THE DUAL PERSPECTIVE OF DIRECT IMPACT AND SPACE OVERFLOW

关键词:  极端天气风险  农民收入质量  空间溢出  创新创业活力  数字乡村建设

Key words:  extreme weather risk  farmers' income quality  space overflow  innovation and entrepreneurship vitality  digital rural construction

摘要:

目的 极端天气事件频发对农民收入质量构成严峻挑战，有效应对这一挑战对于巩固脱贫攻坚成果和推动中国式现代化进程具有重要战略意义。方法 文章基于2011—2021年中国30个省（自治区、直辖市，不包含港澳台和西藏地区）面板数据测算农民收入质量，利用基准回归模型、固定效应模型和空间滞后模型论证极端天气风险对农民收入质量的影响，并运用调节效应模型检验农业经济韧性发挥的调节效应，运用门槛回归模型检验农业创新活力、农村创业活力和数字乡村建设发挥的门槛效应。结果 （1）极端天气风险显著降低了农民收入质量，且极端低温和集中降雨对农民收入质量的负向影响更大。（2）机制分析表明，农业经济韧性在极端天气风险对农民收入质量的影响中发挥负向调节作用，农业创新活力、农村创业活力和数字乡村建设在极端天气风险对农民收入质量的影响中存在单门槛效应。（3）异质性分析显示，在粮食非主产区，极端天气风险对农民收入质量的抑制作用更明显；农业经济韧性中的生态条件维度和经济支撑维度在极端天气风险对农民收入质量的影响中发挥负向调节作用。（4）空间计量分析表明，极端天气风险对农民收入质量的影响存在显著的负向空间溢出效应。结论 为了应对极端天气风险的不利影响，未来可通过持续提高生态条件和经济支撑水平、加强农业农村创新创业支持力度和数字乡村建设支持力度、加快构建极端天气风险跨省联防联控机制，促进农民收入质量提高。

Abstract:

The frequent occurrence of extreme weather events poses a severe challenge to the quality of farmers' income, and effectively addressing this challenge is of great strategic significance for consolidating the achievements of poverty alleviation and advancing the process of Chinese-style modernization. Based on the panel data of 30 provinces (autonomous regions and municipalities directly under the Central Government，excluding Hong Kong, Macao, Taiwan and Xizang regions of China) in China from 2011 to 2021, the quality of farmers' income was measured, and the impact of extreme weather risks on farmers' income quality was demonstrated by the benchmark regression model, fixed effect model and spatial lag model, then the adjustment effect of agricultural economic resilience was tested by the adjustment effect model, finally, the threshold effect of agricultural innovation vitality, rural entrepreneurial vitality and digital village construction was tested by the threshold regression model. The study found that: (1) The risk of extreme weather significantly reduced farmers' income quality, and the negative impact of extreme low temperature and concentrated rainfall on farmers' income quality was greater.(2) Mechanism analysis showed that agricultural economic resilience played a negative moderating role in the impact of extreme weather risks on farmers' income quality, and agricultural innovation vitality, rural entrepreneurial vitality and digital countryside construction had a single threshold effect on the impact of extreme weather risks on farmers' income quality.(3) Heterogeneity analysis showed that in non-major grain producing areas, extreme weather risk had a more significant inhibitory effect on farmers' income quality.The ecological condition dimension and economic support dimension of agricultural economic resilience played a negative moderating role in the impact of extreme weather risks on farmers' income quality.(4) The spatial econometric analysis showed that there was a significant negative spatial spillover effect of extreme weather risk on farmers' income quality.Therefore, in order to cope with the adverse impact of extreme weather risks, efforts can be made to continuously improve the ecological conditions and economic support level, strengthen agricultural and rural innovation and entrepreneurship support and digital village construction support, accelerate the construction of inter-provincial extreme weather risk joint prevention and control mechanism, and promote the improvement of farmers' income quality in the future.