黄河下游粮食生产碳排放脱钩效应及驱动因素研究

DECOUPLING EFFECT AND DRIVING FACTORS OF CARBON EMISSION FROM GRAIN PRODUCTION IN THE LOWER YELLOW RIVER

关键词:  粮食生产  碳排放  脱钩效应  驱动因素  Kaya-LMDI模型

Key words:  grain production  carbon emissions  decoupling effect  driving factors  Kaya-LMDI model

摘要:

目的 探究黄河下游粮食生产碳排放脱钩效应，分析其脱钩驱动因素，推进黄河下游粮食生产绿色低碳转型。方法 文章基于2005—2022年黄河下游17沿黄地市粮食生产数据，构建粮食生产碳排放Tapio脱钩模型和扩展的Kaya-LMDI因素分解模型，分析黄河下游粮食生产碳排放脱钩效应及脱钩驱动因素。结果 （1）2020年黄河下游粮食生产碳排放脱钩由弱脱钩转变为强脱钩，并呈持续深化演变态势。（2）规模经营是制约脱钩的显著因素，2020年其贡献强度达35.08%峰值；单位施肥农业人口数是促进脱钩的关键因素，其贡献值与贡献强度由2016年的-1.69与41.56%逐步回落，两因素均呈现倒“U”型演变特征。（3）碳排放强度是促进脱钩的核心因素，其作用呈波动上升趋势；种植结构的抑制作用呈现先升后降的演变特征，但其阻碍作用仍较显著；化肥施用量的影响呈现显著阶段性特征，2019年由抑制作用转为促进作用。结论 创新政策工具将粮食碳排放权纳入交易体系，建立考核预警等激励约束机制；补贴连片经营推进适度规模经营，实施持续培训计划升级人力资本；强化碳排放强度优势，优化种植结构，巩固化肥减量成果，实现碳排放与粮食产量的深度脱钩，推进黄河下游地区粮食生产的低碳化转型进程。

Abstract:

This study aims to explore the decoupling effect between grain production carbon emissions and output in the lower Yellow River region, analyze its driving factors, and propose pathways to advance green and low-carbon transformation in agricultural practices. Based on grain production data from 17 cities along the lower Yellow River from 2005 to 2022, this research constructed a Tapio decoupling model to evaluate the decoupling status and a Kaya-LMDI decomposition model to quantify the contributions of key drivers. The results were listed as follows. (1) In 2020, the decoupling of carbon emissions from grain production in the lower reaches of the Yellow River shifted from weak decoupling to strong decoupling, with the strong decoupling trend intensifying over time. (2) Scale operation was a significant factor constraining decoupling, with its contribution intensity peaking at 35.08% in 2020. The number of agricultural workers per unit of fertilizer application was a key factor promoting decoupling, with its contribution value and intensity gradually declining from -1.69 and 41.56% in 2016, and both factors exhibited an inverted "U"-shaped evolution pattern. (3) Carbon emission intensity was the core factor promoting decoupling, and its effect showed a fluctuating upward trend; The inhibitory effect of planting structure showed an evolutionary characteristic of first increasing and then decreasing, but its hindering effect was still significant; The impact of fertilizer application showed significant stage characteristics, shifting from inhibitory to promoting effects in 2019.To achieve low-carbon transformation and sustained decoupling, three strategies are proposed: Establishing carbon emission trading mechanisms, enforcing carbon budget management, and refining ecological compensation frameworks; and promoting moderate-scale farming, diversifying cropping systems toward low-carbon crops (e.g., legumes), and enhancing human capital through skill development and technology adoption; Finally, strengthening the advantages of carbon emission intensity, optimizing planting structure, consolidating the achievements of fertilizer reduction, achieve a deep decoupling between carbon emissions and grain production, so as to promote the low-carbon transformation process of grain production in the lower reaches of the Yellow River.