环境规制与畜牧业经济绿色转型——来自中国畜牧业经济发展的实证检验

ENVIRONMENTAL REGULATION AND GREEN TRANSFORMATION OF ANIMAL HUSBANDRY ECONOMY——EMPIRICAL TEST FROM THE DEVELOPMENT OF CHINA'S ANIMAL HUSBANDRY ECONOMY

关键词:  环境规制  畜牧经济  绿色转型  门槛效应

Key words:  environmental regulation  livestock economy  green transformation  threshold effect

摘要:

目的 在日趋严峻的生态环境约束下，多层次、全方位的环境规制体系正倒逼畜牧生产格局的重塑。文章旨在检验环境规制与我国畜牧业绿色转型之间的非线性关系，为合理制定环境政策提供科学依据。方法 基于SBM模型与面板门槛模型，结合2007—2022年的畜牧业面板数据，对环境规制强度与绿色全要素生产率之间的非线性关系进行实证检验。结果 （1）16年间中国畜牧业绿色全要素生产率总体呈现上升趋势，但存在显著的区域差异，中南、西南和西北地区的畜牧业绿色全要素生产率低于全国平均水平。（2）资本与人力资源浪费严重是部分地区效率落后的主要原因。（3）环境规制强度对畜牧业绿色全要素生产率存在单门槛效应，其单一门槛值为0.359 2（95%置信区间为0.330 8～0.379 6）。环境规制强度对绿色全要素生产率的影响呈“倒U形”，即先促进后抑制的特征。（4）地区经济水平、产业结构、规模化水平和劳动力素质对绿色全要素生产率的提升具有显著的促进作用。结论 我国畜牧业绿色转型水平存在显著的地区差异，各地区的转型水平仍有较大提升空间。各地区应结合自身经济社会发展实际，灵活选用环境规制工具，并将规制强度保持在合理区间，以激发区域畜牧业绿色转型的内生动力。

Abstract:

Under the increasingly severe ecological and environmental constraints, the construction of a multi-level and comprehensive environmental regulation system is driving the restructuring of the livestock production model. This study aims to empirically examine the nonlinear relationship between environmental regulation and the green transformation of China's livestock industry, so as to provide scientific evidence for the rational formulation of environmental policies. Using the panel data from livestock industry between 2007 and 2022, the SBM model and panel threshold model were applied to analyze the relationship between environmental regulation intensity and green total factor productivity. The results were showed as follows. (1) Over the 16 years, China's livestock green total factor productivity generally showed an upward trend, but there were significant regional differences. The green total factor productivity in the centralsouthern, southwestern, and northwestern regions of China was lower than the national average. (2) The main reason for the lagging efficiency in some regions was the significant waste of capital and human resources. (3) Further analysis revealed that environmental regulation intensity had a single-threshold effect on green total factor productivity, with a threshold value of 0.359 2 (95% Confidence Interval: 0.330 8-0.379 6), and the impact of environmental regulation intensity on green total factor productivity followed an inverted U-shape, which first promoted and then inhibited productivity. (4) Additionally, regional economic levels, industrial structure, scale of production, and labor quality significantly contributed to the improvement of green total factor productivity. Overall, there are significant regional disparities in the green transformation of China's livestock industry, and there is still considerable room for improvement in the transformation level in various regions. Therefore, each region should select environmental regulation tools flexibly according to its own economic and social development realities, and maintain regulation intensity within a reasonable range to stimulate the endogenous drive for regional livestock green transformation.