农文旅融合与乡村振兴耦合协调度时空演变及影响因素——以陕西省为例

SPATIOTEMPORAL EVOLUTION AND INFLUENCING FACTORS OF THE COUPLING COORDINATION BETWEEN AGRICULTURAL-CULTURAL-TOURISM INTEGRATION AND RURAL REVITALIZATION——A CASE STUDY OF SHAANXI PROVINCE

关键词:  农文旅融合  乡村振兴  耦合协调  发展分析  陕西省

Key words:  agricultural-cultural-tourism integration  rural revitalization  coupling coordination  development analysis  Shaanxi province

摘要:

目的 通过分析陕西省农文旅融合与乡村振兴两大系统耦合协调度的时空演变、动态演化和影响因素，为陕西省实现农村产业现代化和提升乡村振兴水平提供参考建议。方法 文章在构建评价指标的基础上，采用熵值法、耦合协调度模型、马尔可夫链和灰色关联模型对陕西省农文旅融合与乡村振兴两大系统的耦合协调度发展进行分析与预测。结果 （1）2008—2022年陕西省农文旅融合与乡村振兴在空间分布上呈现阶梯状发展格局，综合发展水平显著上升，不同城市之间的发展差异逐步缩小；（2）陕西省农文旅融合与乡村振兴的耦合协调度处于转型发展阶段，两系统的耦合协调等级整体由基本失调向基本协调转移；（3）陕西省不同邻域背景对耦合协调等级转移呈现不同影响，并且这种影响存在非对称性；（4）陕西省农文旅融合与乡村振兴的耦合协调度变化受到农业经济发展水平、旅游业发展水平、农村居民消费水平、农业产业发展水平和农村基础设施水平等因素的影响。结论 陕西省农文旅融合与乡村振兴整体水平较低，耦合协调度有待改善，未来需要进一步提高农业产业融合水平以促进农村改革和乡村振兴。

Abstract:

To analyze the spatiotemporal evolution, dynamic evolution and influencing factors of the coupling coordination degree of the two major systems of agriculture, culture and tourism integration and rural revitalization in Shaanxi province, so as to provide a reference for Shaanxi province to realize rural industrial modernization and improve the level of rural revitalization. On the basis of constructing evaluation indicators, this research used the entropy method, coupling coordination model, Markov chain and gray correlation model to analyze and predict the development of coupling coordination of the two major systems of agriculture, culture and tourism integration and rural revitalization in Shaanxi province. The results were showed as follows. (1) From 2008 to 2022, the integration of agriculture, culture, tourism and rural revitalization in Shaanxi province showed a ladder-like development pattern in spatial distribution, with the comprehensive development level rising significantly, and the development differences between different cities gradually narrowing; (2) The coupling coordination degree of agriculture, culture, tourism integration and rural revitalization in Shaanxi province was in the stage of transformation and development, and the overall coupling coordination level of the two systems changed from basic imbalance to basic coordination transfer;(3) Different neighborhood backgrounds in Shaanxi province had different impacts on the coupling coordination level transfer, and this impact was asymmetric; (4) The changes in the coupling coordination degree of agriculture, culture, tourism integration and rural revitalization in Shaanxi province were affected by factors such as the level of agricultural economic development, tourism development level, rural residents' consumption level, agricultural industry development level and rural infrastructure level. In summary, the overall level of agricultural, cultural and tourism integration and rural revitalization in Shaanxi province is low, and the degree of coupling and coordination needs to be improved. Therefore, in the future, the level of agricultural industry integration needs to be further improved to promote rural reform and rural revitalization.