中国水—粮食—生态系统耦合关系及时空分异

COUPLING RELATIONSHIPS AND SPATIOTEMPORAL VARIATIONS OF WATER-FOOD-ECOLOGY SYSTEM IN CHINA

关键词:  水—粮食—生态  耦合度  协调度  综合发展指数  时空分异

Key words:  water-food-ecology  coupling degree  coordination degree  comprehensive development index  spatiotemporal variation

摘要:

目的 在经济全球化背景下，极端气候变化、城市化进程加速、人口增长，扩大了对水资源和粮食的需求，以及对生态系统的压力。研究各子系统之间的关联关系，统筹推进国家的水资源安全、粮食安全和生态安全，保障经济社会持续健康发展。方法 文章通过在水资源系统和粮食系统关联的基础上引入生态系统，构建中国 “水—粮食—生态系统”（Water-Food-Ecology System，WFE）关联系统评价指标体系；基于耦合协调度模型，分析过去20年中国省级单元WFE关联系统耦合度、协调度的时空动态。结果 （1）中国WFE关联系统综合发展水平呈现波动上升趋势，整体分为渐进式增长（2004—2013年）和快速发展（2014—2023年）两个阶段，粮食、水资源和生态子系统安全指数持续增长，年均增长率分别为3.26%、2.95%和2.20%；（2）中国WFE关联系统耦合度及协调度均稳步上升，耦合度维持在0.883~0.972的高水平耦合等级，系统协调度从2004年的0.578提高至2023年的0.788，实现由勉强协调到中级协调的提升；（3）中国WFE关联系统存在显著的空间差异性，山西及四川等地属于水资源滞后型，浙江、广东及福建等地属于粮食滞后型，宁夏回族自治区等地属于生态滞后型。结论 中国WFE关联系统综合发展指数、耦合度及协调度呈显著上升趋势，各省份和区域之间存在显著的空间差异性，研究结果可为中国WFE系统协调发展和制定针对性的区域发展策略提供科学依据。

Abstract:

Under the context of economic globalization, the intensification of extreme climate change, the acceleration of urbanization, and population growth significantly increases the demand for water resources and food, while simultaneously exerting pressure on ecosystems. Examining the interconnections among these subsystems and promoting the coordinated development of national water resource security, food security, and ecological security is crucial for ensuring the sustainable and healthy development of both the economy and society. To comprehensively evaluate the interrelationships among these three systems, this study integrated the ecosystem into the water resource system and food system, and constructed a water-food-ecology (WFE) system correlation evaluation index system for China. And utilizing the coupling degree and coordination degree model, it investigated the spatiotemporal dynamics of the coupling degree and coordination degree of China's provincial-level WFE system over the past two decades. The results indicated that: (1) The comprehensive development index of China's WFE system exhibited a fluctuating upward trend, which can be divided into a gradual growth stage (2004—2013) and a rapid development stage (2014—2023). The subsystem security indices of food, water resources, and ecology show sustained increases, with average annual growth rates of 3.26%, 2.95%, and 2.20%, respectively. (2) Both the coupling degree and coordination degree of the WFE system showed steady growth. The coupling degree remained within a high coupling level, ranging from 0.883 to 0.972, indicating strong interconnectivity among the water, food, and ecological subsystems. Simultaneously, the coordination degree improved significantly from 0.578 in 2004 to 0.788 in 2023, signifying a transition from a barely coordinated state to an intermediate coordination level, and this enhancement highlighted the continuous progress in balancing the three subsystems. (3) The WFE system demonstrated significant spatial heterogeneity. Provinces such as Shanxi and Sichuan were categorized as water resource-lagging regions, where constrainted in water availability hindered system development. In contrast, Zhejiang, Guangdong, and Fujian were identified as food-lagging regions, reflecting lower food security compared to their water and ecological conditions. Meanwhile, Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region and certain other regions were classified as ecology-lagging regions, where ecological security lagged behind the other two subsystems. In summary, the findings of this study provide scientific insights into the coordinated development of China's WFE system and offer a foundation for designing targeted regional development strategies. By addressing regional disparities in water, food, and ecological security, policymakers can formulate region-specific policies to enhance resource security and achieve sustainable development.