西部民族地区资源禀赋与乡村产业的耦合关联分析

COUPLING ANALYSIS OF RESOURCE ENDOWMENT AND RURAL INDUSTRIES IN WESTERN ETHNIC REGIONS

关键词:  资源禀赋  乡村产业  耦合度  灰色关联  西部民族地区

Key words:  resource endowment  rural industry  coupling degree  grey correlation  western ethnic regions

摘要:

目的 产业振兴是乡村振兴的关键，资源禀赋是乡村产业持续优质发展的基础，为明确其耦合发展规律。方法 文章构建了资源禀赋与乡村产业发展评价指标体系，采用耦合协调和灰色关联分析法，研究了2003—2022年我国西部民族地区及其8个省（自治区）资源禀赋与乡村产业的耦合关联水平。结果 （1）研究时段内，西部民族地区资源禀赋综合发展指数由0.412 1“波动上升”至0.670 3，乡村产业综合发展指数由0.000 1逐年升高至0.996 0，西藏、青海、宁夏两类综合发展指数均排在末位。（2）2003—2010年西部民族地区资源禀赋与乡村产业耦合度值由0.031 1增长到0.958 2，随后常年保持在0.98以上，各省（自治区）变化趋势不一。西部民族地区资源禀赋与乡村产业耦合协调度值由0.080 1逐步提升到0.903 9，青海、宁夏、西藏3地的耦合协调度值常年排在末位。（3）西部民族地区乡村产业各指标与资源禀赋的关联度不高，资源禀赋中财政农林水事务支出、有效灌溉面积、农业机械总动力、耕地面积4项指标与乡村产业间高度关联，关联度值分别为0.845 2、0.835 9、0.779 6和0.762 9。结论 未来西部民族地区，特别是西藏、青海、宁夏应当进一步挖掘区域资源禀赋，通过保护耕地资源，加大财政投入，完善综合配套，引进高新技术，贯彻“藏粮于地、藏粮于技”战略，助力乡村产业实现跨越式发展。

Abstract:

Industrial revitalization is the key to rural revitalization, and resource endowment is the foundation for the sustained and high-quality development of rural industries. To clarify the coupling development law, this research constructed an evaluation index system for resource endowment and rural industrial development, and used coupling coordination and grey correlation analysis to study the coupling correlation level between resource endowment and rural industries in western ethnic regions and eight provinces (autonomous regions) in China from 2003 to 2022. The results showed that: (1) During the study period, the comprehensive development index of resource endowments in the western ethnic areas fluctuated from 0.412 1 to 0.670 3, the comprehensive development index of rural industries increased year by year from 0.000 1 to 0.996 0. Xizang, Qinghai and Ningxia ranked last in the two comprehensive development index. (2) From 2003 to 2010, the coupling degree between resource endowment and rural industries in western ethnic regions increased from 0.031 1 to 0.958 2, and then remained above 0.98 throughout the year. The trend of change varied among provinces (autonomous regions). The value of the coupling and coordination degree of resource endowments and rural industries in western ethnic areas gradually increased from 0.080 1 to 0.903 9, and the coupling and coordination degree of Qinghai, Ningxia and Xizang ranked last all the year round. (3) The correlation between various indicators of rural industries in western ethnic regions and resource endowment was not high. The four indicators of financial agriculture, forestry, and water affairs expenditure, effective irrigation area, total power of agricultural machinery, and cultivated land area in resource endowment were highly correlated with rural industries, with correlation values of 0.845 2, 0.835 9, 0.779 6, and 0.762 9, respectively. In the future, the western ethnic areas, especially Xizang, Qinghai and Ningxia, should further tap regional resource endowments, protect cultivated land resources, increase financial input, improve comprehensive supporting facilities, introduce new and high-tech technologies, and implement the strategy of "storing grain in the land, and storing grain in technology" to help rural industries achieve leapfrog development.