适度规模养殖影响因素及层级结构分解——基于全国755份肉牛养殖户数据

FACTORS INFLUENCING MODERATE SCALE FARMING AND HIERARCHICAL STRUCTURE DECOMPOSITION——BASED ON DATA FROM 755 BEEF CATTLE FARMERS NATIONWIDE

关键词:  肉牛  养殖户  适度规模养殖  影响因素  Logit-ISM模型

Key words:  beef cattle  farmers  moderate scale farming  influencing factors  Logit-ISM modelling

摘要:

目的 规模养殖是畜牧业发展的必然趋势，然而规模化并不代表大规模，一方面，养殖户受“利润最大化”驱使扩张规模以寻求收益增长，另一方面，环境压力日渐激增以及资源要素趋紧对养殖规模产生约束。适度规模养殖的探索或许能成为在环境治理与畜禽产能供给保障的跨期选择中寻求平衡的关键。方法 文章基于755份肉牛养殖户微观调研问卷，运用Logit模型研究了适度规模养殖的影响因素，进一步借助ISM分析法解析了显著因素间的层级结构。结果 养殖户个体特征因素、家庭特征因素、经营特征因素、外在特征因素均对肉牛适度规模养殖产生影响，具体的显著影响因素有养殖户文化程度、家庭劳动力数量、养殖收益、风险偏好、技术水平、产业组织、补贴政策、环境规制以及交通条件。其中养殖收益是表层直接因素；风险偏好、技术水平、环境规制、产业组织、补贴政策因素是中间层间接因素，文化程度、投入劳动力数量和交通条件是深层根源因素。结论 通过对不同层级影响因素施以政策作用力提高养殖户适度规模养殖，以实现肉牛产能供给保障与环境保护的跨期选择平衡。

Abstract:

Scale farming is an inevitable trend in the development of animal husbandry, however, scale does not mean large-scale. On the one hand, farmers are driven by “profit maximization” to expand their scale in order to seek for income growth, on the other hand, environmental pressure is increasing and resource factors are tightening to produce constraints on the scale of farming. The exploration of appropriate scale farming may be the key to finding a balance between environmental management and livestock and poultry production supply security. Based on 755 questionnaires from beef cattle farmers, this research investigated the influencing factors of moderate-scale farming using Logit model, and further analyzed the order structure of the significant factors with the help of ISM analysis. The results showed that the individual characteristics, family characteristics, business characteristics and external characteristics of farmers all had an impact on the appropriate scale breeding of beef cattle. The specific significant influencing factors included the education level of farmers, the number of family laborers, breeding income, risk preference, technical level, industrial organization, subsidy policy, environmental regulation and traffic conditions. Among them, farming income was a surface-level direct factor; risk preference, technical level, environmental regulation, industrial organization, and subsidy policy were intermediate-level indirect factors, while education level, the number of labor inputs, and traffic conditions were deep-rooted factors. In summay, by applying policy effects to different levels of influencing factors to improve farmers' appropriate scale farming, we can realize the balance of intertemporal choices between the security of beef cattle production capacity supply and environmental protection.