政府规制与农业保险保障效果研究——基于地级市政策文本量化分析

GOVERNMENT REGULATION AND AGRICULTURAL INSURANCE PROTECTION EFFECTIVENESS——BASED ON THE QUANTITATIVE ANALYSIS OF POLICY TEXTS AT THE PREFECTURE-LEVEL CITIES

关键词:  农业保险  政府规制  保障效果  市场竞争  政策文本分析

Key words:  agricultural insurance  government regulation  protection effectiveness  market competition  policy text analysis

摘要:

目的 破解农业保险理赔不精准、提升农业保险保障效果，对推动农业保险高质量发展具有重要意义。方法 文章以农业保险政策文本为研究载体，基于网络爬虫技术、文本分析法以及熵值法，构建并测度2013—2022年中国278个地级市政府规制强度，并运用双向固定效应模型和非线性中介效应模型，探讨政府规制对农业保险保障效果的影响及作用机制。结果 （1）政府规制与农业保险保障效果存在倒U型关系，且绝大多数地区的政府规制强度尚未超过拐点；（2）政府规制通过增强市场竞争程度这一非线性机制影响农业保险保障效果提升；（3）政府规制在粮食功能区和农业风险地区对农业保险保障效果的影响具有区域异质性，非粮食主产区和低风险地区尚未呈现显著的倒U型影响。（4）约束规制与引导规制对农业保险保障效果均呈倒U型影响，但引导规制见效更快，究其原因是约束规制中的行政处罚与信息公开尚未显著提升农业保险保障效果。结论 政府应因地制宜动态调整规制强度、推动约束与引导规制协调发展、健全绩效考核机制、优化市场竞争环境，切实提升农业保险保障效果。

Abstract:

Addressing the issue of inaccurate claims in agricultural insurance and improving protection effectiveness is crucial for promoting the high-quality development of agricultural insurance. Taking the agricultural insurance policy texts as research material, this research applied web scraping techniques, text analysis, and the entropy weight method to construct and measure the intensity of government regulation in 278 prefecture-level cities in China from 2013 to 2022. By employing a two-way fixed effects model and a nonlinear mediation effect model, this research explored the impact and mechanisms of government regulation on agricultural insurance protection effectiveness. The results were shown as follows. (1) There was an inverted U-shaped relationship between government regulation and agricultural insurance protection effectiveness, and the regulation intensity in the vast majority of regions had not yet exceeded the turning point. (2) Government regulation affected agricultural insurance protection effectiveness through the nonlinear mechanism of enhancing market competition. (3) Government regulation exhibited regional heterogeneity in its impact on agricultural insurance protection effectiveness in grain-functional areas and agricultural risk regions, with no significant inverted U-shaped effect observed in non-major grain-producing areas and low agricultural risk regions. (4) Both constraint-oriented regulation and guidance-oriented regulation showed an inverted U-shaped effect on agricultural insurance protection effectiveness, but guidance-oriented regulation took effect more quickly, likely because administrative penalties and information disclosure in constraint-oriented regulation had not yet significantly improved agricultural insurance protection effectiveness. Therefore, the government should dynamically adjust regulation intensity according to local conditions, promote the coordinated development of constraint-oriented and guidance-oriented regulation, improve performance evaluation mechanisms, and optimize market competition to effectively enhance agricultural insurance protection effectiveness.