中国与阿拉伯国家联盟的农产品贸易效率及潜力研究——基于随机前沿引力模型的分析

THE EFFICIENCY AND POTENTIAL OF AGRICULTURAL TRADE BETWEEN CHINA AND THE LEAGUE OF ARAB STATES——ANALYSIS BASED ON STOCHASTIC FRONTIER GRAVITY MODELING

关键词:  阿拉伯国家联盟  农产品贸易  随机前沿引力模型  贸易效率  贸易潜力

Key words:  the LAS  agricultural trade  stochastic frontier gravity model  trade efficiency  trade potentialities

摘要:

目的 2024年是中国与阿拉伯国家合作论坛成立20周年，农产品贸易是中阿经贸合作的重要领域，提升贸易效率是中阿农业高质量发展的重要途径。方法 文章基于2001—2022年中国与阿盟国家的农产品贸易现状，使用随机前沿引力模型分析中国与主要阿盟国家的农产品贸易效率、非效率影响因素和贸易潜力。结果 （1）中国与阿盟国家农产品贸易的影响因素主要是国内生产总值、人口数量、地理距离、农业产值以及农业用水。（2）在农产品贸易效率中，中国与科摩罗、毛里塔尼亚、卡塔尔等国的农产品贸易效率提升明显。（3）在贸易效率影响因素中，阿盟国家提升海运基础设施和金融自由度，加入“一带一路”倡议、加入海合会以及中国扩大贸易开放度，均能显著提升中国对阿盟国家的农产品出口效率；阿盟国家扩大贸易开放度以及阿盟成员为最不发达国家，均有利于提升中国自阿盟国家农产品进口效率。（4）在贸易潜力和拓展空间中，中国与阿盟国家的农产品贸易潜力较高，农产品贸易的可拓展国家主要为阿联酋、埃及、沙特，可拓展的农产品主要是咖啡、茶、果蔬及制品、棉麻丝制品。结论 通过优化农产品通关渠道，对接检疫检验规则，充分利用“一带一路”、海合会平台，以及优化交通基础设施等方式，提升中国与阿盟国家的农产品贸易效率，扩大贸易规模。

Abstract:

The year 2024 marks the 20th anniversary of the establishment of the China-Arab States Cooperation Forum. Agricultural product trade is a significant area of economic and trade cooperation between China and Arab countries. Enhancing trade efficiency is an important approach for the high-quality development of agriculture in both regions. Based on the status of agricultural product trade between China and the League of Arab States (LAS) from 2001 to 2022, a stochastic frontier gravity model was used to analyze the trade efficiency, inefficiency influencing factors, and trade potential of agricultural products between China and major Arab League countries. The results were listed as follows. (1) The main factors influencing agricultural trade between China and AMU member countries were gross domestic product, population size, geographical distance, agricultural output value, and agricultural water usage. (2) In terms of trade efficiency, the trade efficiency of agricultural products between China and Comoros, Mauritania, and Qatar improved significantly. (3) Among the influencing factors of trade efficiency, enhancing maritime infrastructure and financial freedom in LAS, joining the Belt and Road Initiative, joining the Gulf Cooperation Council, and China's expansion of trade openness could all significantly improve the efficiency of China's agricultural product exports to LAS. Expanding trade openness of the LAS and the fact that some LAS members were least developed countries were both conducive to improving the efficiency of China's agricultural product imports from the LAS. (4) In terms of trade potential and expansion space, the trade potential of agricultural products between China and the LAS was relatively high. The main countries with potential for expansion were the United Arab Emirates, Egypt, and Saudi Arabia, and the main agricultural products with potential for expansion were coffee, tea, fruits and vegetables and their products, and cotton, linen, and silk products. In summary, by optimizing the customs clearance channels for agricultural products, aligning quarantine and inspection rules, fully leveraging the Belt and Road Initiative and the Gulf Cooperation Council platform, and improving transportation infrastructure, the trade efficiency of agricultural products between China and the LAS can be enhanced, and the trade scale can be expanded.