山西省农业产业链韧性水平测度及提升路径

MEASUREMENT AND IMPROVEMENT PATH OF RESILIENCE LEVEL OF AGRICULTURAL INDUSTRY CHAIN IN SHANXI PROVINCE

关键词:  农业产业  产业链韧性  水平测度  提升路径  山西省

Key words:  agricultural industry  industrial chain resilience  measurement  improvement path  Shanxi province

摘要:

目的 山西省是我国特优农业产业发展的典型农业大省，把握山西农业产业链韧性水平和发展现状，探索农业引领产业韧性锻造和提升路径。方法 文章通过构建评价指标体系对山西省农业产业链韧性水平进行测度，然后结合耦合协调度模型和核密度估计分析法，以全国做对比，综合探析山西省农业产业韧性发展现状和提升路径。结果 （1）山西省农业产业链韧性水平呈现逐年上升趋势，但总体水平略低于全国平均水平。（2）山西农业产业链的防御韧性指数一直处于相对较高水平，但增速缓慢，恢复韧性指数增长速度较快，创新韧性水平最低，明显低于其他子系统。（3）与全国表现明显不同，山西省农业产业链子系统韧性变化波动性较小，韧性值均呈稳定上升态势，且韧性值差别较大；全国农业产业链子系统韧性具有明显的阶段性发展特征。（4）山西省农业产业链发展耦合度相对较高，以磨合型和高水平耦合类型为主，耦合协调度水平不高，但呈逐步提升态势，耦合协调类型由严重失调逐步向中度、轻度失调有序转变，呈现出相对良好的发展态势。山西省农业产业链韧性属于全国的低水平发展区域。结论 山西农业产业发展基础较好，资源禀赋优势明显，但利用不足；农业产业链韧性发展由前期的防御引领型转变为后期的恢复引领型，创新度不高，政策扶持有效促进了产业链恢复韧性的快速增长，但产业数字化和金融服务体系发展滞后，农业高新科技投入较低，是产业链防御韧性和创新韧性发展缓慢的主要原因。最后，针对性地提出农业产业链韧性提升建议和路径。

Abstract:

Shanxi province is a typical agricultural province in China with excellent agricultural industry development. By grasping the resilience level and development status of Shanxi's agricultural industry chain, this research aims to explore the path of forging and improving the resilience of industries led by excellent agriculture. An evaluation index system for the resilience of the agricultural industry chain in Shanxi province was constructed to measure its resilience level, and the coupling coordination degree model and kernel density estimation analysis method was adopted to compare it with the national level, then the current situation and improvement path of the resilience development of the agricultural industry in Shanxi province was comprehensively explored. The results were summarized as follows. (1) The resilience level of the agricultural industry chain in Shanxi province showed an upward trend year by year, but the overall level was relatively low and slightly lower than the national average. (2) The defense resilience index of Shanxi's agricultural industry chain had always been at a relatively high level, but the growth rate was slow. The recovery resilience index grew rapidly, followed by the innovation resilience index. The development level of innovation resilience was the lowest, significantly lagging behind the other two subsystems. (3) The resilience level and changes of the agricultural industry chain system in Shanxi province were significantly different from the national performance. The resilience changes of the agricultural industry chain system in Shanxi province had small fluctuations, and the resilience values showed a stable upward trend, with significant differences in resilience values; The resilience of the national agricultural industry chain system had obvious phased development characteristics. (4) The coupling degree of agricultural industry chain development in Shanxi province was relatively high, mainly in the form of running in and high-level coupling. The level of coupling coordination was not high, but it was gradually improving. The coupling coordination type was gradually shifting from severe imbalance to moderate and mild imbalance in an orderly manner, showing a relatively good development trend. In summary, the resilience of the agricultural industry chain in Shanxi province belongs to a low-level development region in the country. The development foundation of Shanxi's agricultural industry is relatively good, with obvious advantages in resource endowment，but insufficient utilization; The resilience development of the agricultural industry chain shifts from a defense led model in the early stage to a recovery led model in the later stage. The innovation level is not high, and policy support effectively promotes the rapid growth of the industry chain's resilience. However, the development of industrial digitization and financial service system lags behind, and the investment in agricultural high-tech is relatively low, which is the main reason for the slow development of the industry chain's defense resilience and innovation resilience. Finally, it proposes targeted suggestions and paths for enhancing the resilience of the agricultural industry chain.