劳动力转移对农业碳排放的影响机制及减排潜力分析

ANALYSIS OF THE IMPACT MECHANISM AND EMISSION REDUCTION POTENTIAL OF LABOR TRANSFER ON AGRICULTURAL CARBON EMISSIONS

关键词:  农业碳排放  农村劳动力转移  土地流转  减排潜力  农业绿色发展

Key words:  agricultural carbon emissions  transfer of rural labor force  land transfer  emission reduction potential  green development of agriculture

摘要:

目的 农村劳动力转移将推动农业规模经营，加快土地流转，从而通过改变农业生产方式影响农业碳排放，探究这些因素之间的关联性对于推动农业绿色低碳发展至关重要。方法 文章基于2005—2022年中国的省际面板数据，利用双向固定效应模型探究农村劳动力转移对农业碳排放的影响，运用中介效应和门槛效应模型研究农村劳动力转移、土地流转和农业碳排放三者之间的作用机制。为了探究各地区农业发展的潜力，该文进一步运用BP神经网络模型和情景分析法对农业碳排放进行预测分析。结果 （1）农村劳动力转移对农业碳排放具有显著的抑制作用，且在趋粮化地区和粮食主产区有更强的抑制作用。（2）农村劳动力转移通过促进土地流转从而抑制农业碳排放，土地流转的中介作用效应为31.85%。（3）进一步分析发现，农村劳动力转移对农业碳排放的影响存在显著的门槛效应，随着转移规模跨越门槛值，其抑制作用呈现逐渐递增的非线性特征。（4）各地区均有一定的碳减排潜力，且在农村劳动力转移规模小和土地流转弱的地区，往往具有更高的农业碳排放和碳减排潜力。结论 需要通过农村劳动力有序转移与培训、完善土地流转市场机制、实施差异化的碳减排等策略，有效应对农村劳动力外流现象对农业碳排放的影响，并充分挖掘各地区的碳减排潜力。

Abstract:

The transfer of rural labor will promote large-scale agricultural operations and accelerate land circulation, thereby affecting agricultural carbon emissions through changes in agricultural production methods. Exploring the correlation among these factors is crucial for promoting the green and low-carbon development of agriculture. Based on the inter-provincial panel data from China from 2005 to 2022, this study employed the two-way fixed effects model to investigate the impact of rural labor transfer on agricultural carbon emissions, and used the mediation effect and the threshold effect model to examine the mechanism of interaction among rural labor transfer, land circulation, and agricultural carbon emissions. And to explore the development potential of agriculture in various regions, it further applied the BP neural network model and scenario analysis to forecast agricultural carbon emissions. The results were summarized as follows. Rural labor transfer had a significant inhibitory effect on agricultural carbon emissions, with a stronger inhibitory effect observed in grain-oriented regions and major grain-producing areas. Rural labor transfer suppressed agricultural carbon emissions by promoting land circulation, with the mediation effect of land circulation accounting for 31.85%. Further analysis revealed that there was a significant threshold effect in the impact of rural labor transfer on agricultural carbon emissions; as the scale of transfer crossed the threshold, its inhibitory effect exhibited a progressively increasing nonlinear characteristic. All regions possessed a certain potential for carbon reduction, and areas with a smaller scale of rural labor transfer and weaker land circulation tended to have higher agricultural carbon emissions and greater carbon reduction potential. Therefore, it is necessary to effectively address the impact of rural labor outflow on agricultural carbon emissions and fully tap into the carbon reduction potential of various regions through strategies such as orderly rural labor transfer and training, improving the market mechanism for land circulation, and implementing differentiated carbon reduction measures.