京津冀地区耕地“非粮化”的时空格局演变及影响因素研究

THE SPATIOTEMPORAL EVOLUTION OF “NON-GRAIN CULTIVATION” LAND IN THE BEIJING-TIANJIN-HEBEI REGION AND ITS INFLUENCING FACTORS

关键词:  耕地非粮化  时空演变  地理探测器  影响机制  京津冀

Key words:  non-grain cultivation of cultivated land  spatiotemporal evolution  geographic detector  influencing mechanism  Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei

摘要:

目的 理清京津冀耕地非粮化时空格局演变规律和影响机制，为区域耕地优化利用提供参考。方法 基于县域层面，文章采用空间分析方法对2008—2023年京津冀耕地非粮化时空演变进行分析，同时结合地理探测器模型从不同角度探析其影响机制。结果 （1）京津冀耕地非粮化水平由2008年的0.254下降至2023年0.207，年均下降率为1.35%。其中，北京市地区耕地非粮化水平最高，呈现先升高后降低的趋势；天津市地区耕地非粮化水平整体呈现逐年快速下降趋势；河北省耕地非粮化变化趋势基本与京津冀变化趋势一致，呈现稳定缓慢的下降趋势。（2）北京县域非粮化水平均加重，天津县域非粮化均减轻，河北大部分县域非粮化加重，少部分县域减轻。其中，加重的县域主要分布于唐山、邢台、石家庄和保定地区，减轻的县域分布相对零散，如张家口的康保县、沧州的海兴县、东光县和衡水阜城县等。（3）2008—2023年京津冀县域耕地非粮化变化类型以减轻型为主，减轻型县域数量为61个，占全部研究县域总数的40.13%，主要分布于天津市和河北省的南部县域；其次是轻度加重型和重度加重型，占比分别为23.68%和23.02%，主要分布于北京市和河北省的北部县域；稳定性县域占比13.16%，零散分布于河北的南部县域。（4）耕地非粮化空间分布格局具有集聚效应，集聚特征以高高集聚、低低集聚为主，集聚程度随着时间呈现先减弱，后增强的变化趋势。（5）自然因素对京津冀耕地非粮化水平的影响一直处于重要的主导地位，经济因素影响变化相对稳定，社会因素影响呈现先下降，再升高的趋势，其中自然因素和经济社会因素中的农业从业人员数、有效灌溉面积、土地生产率、人均GDP和第二三产业GDP占比等因素始终是非粮化的重要影响因子。结论 虽然京津冀耕地非粮化有整体下降趋势，但是局部非粮化问题范围仍较广，空间自相关特征明显，呈现自东南向西北逐步加重的发展趋势，未来，需要加强差异化的区域“非粮化”管控政策，同时通过提升粮食产出效率，增加农民收入等方式，缓解“非粮化”趋势。

Abstract:

To clarify the spatiotemporal pattern evolution and driving mechanism of non-grain cultivated land in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region, and provide a reference for optimizing the utilization of regional cultivated land. A spatial analysis method based on the county level was used to analyze the spatiotemporal evolution of non-grain cultivated land in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region from 2008 to 2023. At the same time, a geographic detector model was used to explore its driving mechanism from different perspectives. The results showed that: (1) The non-grain level of cultivated land in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region decreased from 0.254 in 2008 to 0.207 in 2023, with an average annual decline rate of 1.35%. Among them, the non-grain cultivation level of cultivated land in Beijing was the highest, showing a trend of first increasing and then decreasing; The overall level of non-grain cultivation conversion of cultivated land in Tianjin had shown a rapid downward trend year by year; The trend of non-grain cultivation conversion of cultivated land in Hebei province was basically consistent with the trend of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei, showing a stable and slow downward trend. (2) The level of non-grain cultivation in Beijing's counties intensified, while in Tianjin's counties, it decreased. Most counties in Hebei have increased their non-grain cultivation, while a few had decreased. Among them, the counties with increased non-grain cultivation were mainly distributed in Tangshan, Xingtai, Shijiazhuang, and Baoding, while the counties with decreased non-grain cultivation were relatively scattered, such as Kangbao county in Zhangjiakou, Haixing county, Dongguang county, and Fucheng county in Cangzhou. (3) The main type of non grain transformation of cultivated land in counties was light reduction, with 61 counties experiencing light reduction, accounting for 40.13% of the total number of counties studied, mainly distributed in the southern counties of Tianjin and Hebei provinces; Next were mild and severe exacerbations, accounting for 23.68% and 23.02% respectively, mainly distributed in the northern counties of Beijing and Hebei province; Stable counties accounted for 13.16%, scattered in the southern counties of Hebei province. (4) The spatial distribution pattern of non-grain cultivated land had a clustering effect, with clustering characteristics mainly characterized by high-high clustering and low-low clustering. The degree of clustering showed a trend of first weakening and then strengthening over time. (5) The impact of natural factors on the non-grain cultivation level of cultivated land in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region had always been in an important dominant position, while the impact of economic factors had remained relatively stable, and the impact of social factors had shown a trend of first decreasing and then increasing, among which natural factors and economic and social factors such as the number of agricultural workers, effective irrigation area, land productivity, per capita GDP, and the proportion of GDP in the secondary and tertiary industries had always been important driving factors for non-grain cultivation. Therefore, although the overall trend of non-graining of cultivated land in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region is declining, local non-graining problems are still prominent, with obvious spatial autocorrelation characteristics, showing a gradually increasing development trend from southeast to northwest. In the future, it is necessary to strengthen differentiated regional "non graining" control policies, and alleviate the "non graining" trend by improving grain output efficiency and increasing farmers' income.