畜牧业生态效率评价及影响因素——以内蒙古33个牧业旗县为例

ECOLOGICAL EFFICIENCY EVALUATION AND INFLUENCING FACTORS OF ANIMAL HUSBANDRY——A CASE STUDY OF 33 ANIMAL HUSBANDRY BANNER COUNTIES IN INNER MONGOLIA

关键词:  畜牧业生态效率  超效率SBM模型  地理探测器  牧业旗县  草原碳汇

Key words:  ecological efficiency of animal husbandry  super efficient SBM model  geographic detector  livestock production banners  grassland carbon sink

摘要:

目的 畜牧业生态效率提升是促进牧区高品质生态的关键环节。科学测度畜牧业生态效率，明确县域生态效率时空格局并剖析其影响因素，对于畜牧业高质量发展具有重要意义。方法 文章以内蒙古33个牧业旗县为研究区，运用超效率SBM模型、空间相关性分析、核密度估计、空间马尔可夫链预测和地理探测器方法对2000—2020年畜牧业生态效率水平及影响因素进行识别分析。结果 （1）研究期间内蒙古畜牧业生态效率呈先下降后波动上升的变化趋势，均值处于0.6~0.85，整体处于中等效率水平且区域内部存在较大的空间异质性；（2）畜牧业生态效率存在波动性的空间集聚特征。HH集聚区空间布局呈逐渐向西转移的态势，LL集聚区主要分布在东部温性典型草原区和鄂尔多斯部分荒漠化草原区，HL和LH集聚区主要分布于东部温性典型草原区和西部荒漠区。畜牧业生态效率长期趋势呈现“俱乐部收敛”特征，且演变格局受地理要素影响较显著。（3）自然和交通因素是影响畜牧业生态效率的主要驱动因素，其中单位面积公路里程和年降水量是影响研究区畜牧业生态效率的主要因子。结论 内蒙古畜牧业生态效率的空间异质性显著，建议基于草地质量状况采取差异化管理政策提升生态效率，以推动牧区人地关系协调发展。

Abstract:

The enhancement of ecological efficiency in animal husbandry is a crucial link for promoting high-quality ecology in pastoral regions. Accurately measuring the ecological efficiency of animal husbandry, clarifying the spatial-temporal patterns at the county level, and analyzing the influencing factors are vital for the high-quality development of animal husbandry. Based on the super-efficiency SBM model, spatial correlation analysis, kernel density estimation, spatial Markov chain prediction and the geographical detector method, this research identified and analyzed the level and influencing factors of animal husbandry ecological efficiency in 33 livestock production banners of Inner Mongolia from 2000 to 2020. The findings indicated that: (1) During the study period, the ecological efficiency of animal husbandry in Inner Mongolia initially declined, followed by fluctuation and an eventual increase. The average value ranged between 0.6 and 0.85, with the overall efficiency at the medium level, and exhibiting significant spatial heterogeneity across the region; (2) The ecological efficiency of animal husbandry exhibited spatial clustering characteristics with fluctuation patterns. High-high (HH) agglomeration areas were gradually shifting westward, while low-low (LL) agglomeration areas were mainly distributed in the eastern temperate typical grassland regions and desertified grassland regions in Ordos. The High-low (HL) and low-high (LH) clustering areas were mainly distributed in the eastern temperate typical grassland regions and the western desert regions. The long-term trend of animal husbandry ecological efficiency followed a "club convergence" pattern, significantly affected by geographical factors; (3) Natural and traffic factors were the primary determinants of ecological efficiency. Specifically, highway density per unit area and annual precipitation were the key factors affecting the ecological efficiency of animal husbandry in the study area. In summary, the spatial heterogeneity of ecological efficiency in Inner Mongolia's animal husbandry industry is prominent. This study suggests that differentiated management policies, according to grassland quality, should be formulated to enhance ecological efficiency, thereby advancing the coordinated development of man-land relationship in pastoral areas.