中国耕地资源转化为可持续经济的能力评价

EVALUATION OF THE ABILITY OF CHINA'S CULTIVATED LAND RESOURCES TO TRANSFORM INTO SUSTAINABLE ECONOMY

关键词:  耕地资源  可持续经济  现实能力  潜在能力  中国

Key words:  cultivated land resources  sustainable economy  actual ability  potential  China

摘要:

目的 文章旨在评估耕地资源转化为可持续经济的现实能力和潜在能力，揭示其时空演变特征与空间分异规律，为耕地资源可持续利用提供科学依据。方法 基于当量因子法测算出的耕地资源生态系统服务价值，在此基础上从多个维度建立相应指标体系，采用熵权法和TOPSIS法分别测度了2010—2020年中国31个省（市、自治区，不含港澳台）耕地资源转化为可持续经济的现实能力和潜在能力。结果 （1）中国耕地资源转化为可持续经济的现实能力整体上呈现波动上升的趋势，但大部分省份现实转化能力不高且年均增速不足1%。（2）中国耕地资源转化为可持续经济的潜在能力总体不高且各省份之间存在较大差异。（3）中国耕地资源转化为可持续经济的现实能力和潜在能力存在一定的空间正相关性，高转化能力区周围亦高，低转化能力区周围亦低。（4）从空间上看，秦岭—淮河以北的地区现实能力高于南部地区；东北和西北人均耕地面积多、耕地后备资源丰富、农产品品质优良的地区潜在转化能力高于其他地区。（5）“双高”省份主要集中在东北和西北耕地资源丰富、经济基础较好的省份；“双低”省份主要集中在中东部耕地资源相对不足、用地效率受限及经济发展水平不高的地区。结论 耕地资源丰富、人均耕地面积多、具备完善的农产品加工和流通体系的省份耕地资源转化为可持续经济的能力较高。

Abstract:

This research aims to assess the actual ability and potential of transforming cultivated land resources into a sustainable economy, reveal their spatio-temporal evolution characteristics and spatial differentiation laws, and provide a scientific basis for the sustainable utilization of cultivated land resources. Based on the ecosystem service value of cultivated land resources calculated by the equivalent factor method, a corresponding index system was established from multiple dimensions on this basis. And the entropy weight method and the TOPSIS method were used to measure respectively the actual ability and potential of transforming cultivated land resources into a sustainable economy in 31 provinces (municipalities, autonomous regions, excluding Hong Kong, Macao, and Taiwan) in China from 2010 to 2020.The results found that: (1) The actual ability of China's cultivated land resources to be transformed into a sustainable economy generally showed a fluctuating upward trend. However, the actual transformation ability in most provinces was not high and the average annual growth rate was less than 1%. (2) The potential of China's cultivated land resources to be transformed into a sustainable economy was generally not high and there were significant differences among provinces. (3) There was a certain spatial positive correlation between the actual ability and potential of China's cultivated land resources to be transformed into a sustainable economy. The correlation was high around areas with high transformation capacity and low around areas with low transformation capacity. (4) From a spatial perspective, the actual ability of the area north of the Qinling-Huaihe Line was higher than that of the southern region. The per capita cultivated land area in Northeast and Northwest China was large, and the reserve resources of cultivated land were abundant. The potential transformation capacity of regions with high-quality agricultural products was higher than that of other regions. (5) The "double high" provinces were mainly concentrated in the northeastern and northwestern regions with abundant cultivated land resources and a relatively solid economic foundation, while the "double low" provinces were mainly located in the central and eastern regions where cultivated land resources were relatively insufficient, land use efficiency was restricted, and the economic development level was not high. Therefore, provinces with abundant cultivated land resources, large per capita cultivated land area, and a complete agricultural product processing and circulation system have a higher ability to convert cultivated land resources into a sustainable economy.