甘肃省耕地“非农化”路径演化及驱动机制研究——基于最优参数地理探测器

SPATIO-TEMPORAL EVOLUTION PATHWAYS AND DRIVING MECHANISMS OF FARMLAND NON-AGRICULTURAL CONVERSION IN GANSU PROVINCE——BASED ON THE OPTIMAL PARAMETER-BASED GEOGRAPHICAL DETECTOR

关键词:  最优参数地理探测器  耕地非农化  时空演变  驱动机制  甘肃省

Key words:  optimal parameter-based geographical detector  farmland non-agricultural conversion  spatio-temporal evolution  driving mechanism  Gansu province

摘要:

目的 在耕地非农化加剧威胁粮食安全的背景下，揭示甘肃省耕地非农化时空分异规律及演变机制，为协调生态脆弱区土地开发与耕地保护提供科学支撑。方法 文章基于1980—2020年多时相土地利用数据，结合自然地理因子、社会经济因子和交通区位因子，运用耕地非农化率、重心迁移模型及最优参数地理探测器等方法，从时间、空间和因素层面分析甘肃省耕地非农化时空演变特征及驱动机制。结果 （1）1980—2020年甘肃省耕地面积呈现“先增后减”的时序分异特征。2000年为转折点，前期（1980—2000年）净增944.50 km2，2010—2020年净减1 177 km2，与非耕地形成对冲格局。（2）甘肃省耕地非农化呈“梯度分异、阶段跃迁”格局。（3）1980—2020年甘肃省耕地非农化重心持续向西北迁移，呈现“加速—收敛”的阶段性特征。（4）通过最优参数地理探测器分析表明经济与社会因子主导甘肃省耕地非农化进程，且驱动维度由单一向协同演化。结论 该研究系统解析了甘肃省耕地非农化时空演变规律，为科学制定差异化耕地保护政策、优化国土空间管控体系提供依据，对推动耕地资源可持续利用具有重要实践价值。

Abstract:

Against the backdrop of intensifying farmland non-agricultural conversion posing significant threats to food security, this study aims to reveal the spatio-temporal differentiation patterns and evolutionary mechanisms of farmland non-agricultural conversion in Gansu province, so as to provide scientific support for coordinating land development and farmland protection in ecologically fragile regions. Leveraging multi-temporal land use data (1980—2020) integrated with natural geographical factors, socioeconomic factors, and transportation accessibility factors, this research employed farmland non-agricultural conversion rate, gravity center migration model, and optimal parameter-based geographical detector to systematically analyze the spatio-temporal characteristics and driving mechanisms of farmland conversion across temporal, spatial, and factorial dimensions. The results found that: (1) Farmland area in Gansu exhibited an "increase-decrease fluctuation" temporal pattern during 1980—2020, with 2000 as the inflection point: net growth of 944.50 km2 during 1980—2000, followed by a net loss of 1 177 km2 during 2010—2020, forming a counteractive pattern with non-agricultural land. (2) The farmland conversion displayed "gradient differentiation and phased transition" spatial characteristics. (3) The gravity center of conversion persistently migrated northwestward, demonstrating an "acceleration-convergence" phased trajectory. (4) Optimal parameter-based geographical detector analysis revealed socioeconomic factors dominated the conversion process, with driving mechanisms evolving from single-dimensional to synergistic interactions. Therefore, this study systematically deciphers the spatio-temporal evolution logic of farmland non-agricultural conversion in Gansu, offering critical insights for formulating differentiated farmland protection policies and optimizing territorial spatial governance systems, thereby advancing sustainable utilization of arable land resources in arid inland regions.