休耕政策对农户耕地转出行为的影响研究——基于土地依赖和耕地质量的中介效应

THE IMPACT OF FALLOW POLICY ON FARMERS' FARMLAND TRANSFER BEHAVIOR——BASED ON THE MEDIATING EFFECT OF LAND DEPENDENCE AND FARMLAND QUALITY

关键词:  休耕政策  耕地转出  PSM-DID  PLS-SEM  甘肃省通渭县

Key words:  fallow policy  farmland transfer  PSM-DID  PLS-SEM  Tongwei county, Gansu province

摘要:

目的 探究休耕政策对农户耕地转出行为的影响，旨在协调推进“藏粮于地”和农业适度规模化两大战略。方法 文章基于甘肃省通渭县476份微观农户调查数据，使用倾向得分匹配双重差分法和偏最小二乘法结构方程模型实证分析了休耕政策对农户耕地转出行为的影响及其机制。结果 （1）休耕不仅推动了休耕地转出，还促进了非休耕地转出。这一结论在经更换因变量、更换匹配方法及安慰剂检验的稳健性检验后仍可靠。（2）机制分析表明，休耕会通过降低土地依赖与改善耕地质量促进耕地转出，且土地依赖的中介作用大于耕地质量。（3）异质性分析发现，休耕对耕地转出的促进作用会因休耕参与度、受教育程度和耕地细碎化程度不同而有所差异。具体来说，休耕参与度越高、受教育程度中等、耕地细碎化程度越低的农户，休耕对其耕地转出的促进作用越明显。结论 在保障粮食安全的前提下，适度扩大西北生态退化区休耕范围，鼓励休耕托管服务，健全非农就业支持体系，可有效激发耕地流转供给侧活力。此外，加强农村教育投入并推动耕地集中连片将有利于实现适度规模化和现代化农业生产模式。

Abstract:

Exploring the impact of fallow policy on farmers' farmland transfer behavior aims to coordinate the implementation of the two strategies of "storing grain in land" and appropriate-scale agriculture. Based on 476 micro farmer survey data in Tongwei county, Gansu province, we empirically analyzed the impact and mechanism of the fallow policy on farmers' farmland transfer behavior by using the propensity score matching difference in differences and partial least squares-structural equation model. The results found that: (1) The policy not only promoted the transfer of fallow land, but also promoted the transfer of non-fallow land. This conclusion still held after the robustness test of replacing the dependent variable, replacing the matching method, and placebo test. (2) The fallow pilot policy affected the transfer of farmland by reducing land dependence and improving farmland quality, with partial mediation effects of 53% and 47%, respectively. (3) The policy had a more obvious effect on the farmland transfer behavior of farmers with high fallow participation, low fragmentation, and high per capita farmland area. Therefore, under the premise of ensuring food security, moderately expanding the fallow scope in the degraded areas of Northwest China, encouraging fallow hosting services, and improving the non-agricultural employment support system can effectively stimulate the vitality of the supply side of farmland transfer. In addition, improving the mechanism of farmland transfer and actively cultivating new agricultural operators will be conducive to the realization of large-scale and modern agricultural production models.