对标发达国家冷链流通率的我国2030 年冷库需求量预测

Forecast the demand of China’s cold storage in 2030 accordingto the cold chain circulation rate of developed countries

关键词:  冷库需求量  ARIMA 模型  农产品产量

Key words:  Cold storage demand  ARIMA model  Agricultural production

摘要:

【目的】冷库需求量的预测是冷链物流需求预测的关键，对推动冷链物流的发展、指 导冷库建设布局起着至关重要的作用。【方法】文章以1996—2018 年我国蔬菜、水果、肉类、 禽蛋、水产品产量数据为基础，运用ARIMA 模型对2030 年各类农产品产量进行预测；对标 发达国家冷链流通率，结合冷库利用率、周转率，对2030 年我国冷库需求量进行预测。【结 果】结果显示，2030 年我国冷库需求量预测值为19 645.81 万t。根据当前资料显示，2018 年我国冷库容量为5 238 万t，2011—2018 年冷库容量年均增长率为17.35%，但增长率总体 呈下降趋势。要达到预计需求量，我国冷库库容年均增长率需保持在11.65% 以上。【结论】 根据统计资料及预测数据，该文提出了完善政策支持、持续稳定推进冷链发展、优化冷库布 局、提升冷库智能化水平等建议，旨在为冷库建设方面的研究和发展提供参考。

Abstract:

［Purpose］The prediction of cold storage demand is the key of cold chain logistics demand prediction，which plays a vital role in promoting the development of cold chain logistics and guiding the layout of cold storage construction.［ Method］Based on the output data of vegetables，fruits，meat，eggs and aquatic products in China from 1996 to 2018，this paper uses ARIMA model to forecast the output of various agricultural products in 2030. On the basis of forecast output，combined with cold chain circulation rate of developed countries and the utilization rate and turnover rate of cold storage，the demand of cold storage in China in 2030 is predicted.［ Result］Through calculation，the forecast value of cold storage demand in 2030 in China is 196.458 1 million tons. According to the current data，the refrigerated storage capacity of China was 52.38 million tons in 2018，and the average annual growth rate from 2011 to 2018 was 17.35%，but the overall growth rate showed a downward trend. To meet the expected demand， the annual growth rate of refrigerated storage capacity in China needs to be above 11.65%. ［Conclusion］According to the statistical data and forecast data，this paper puts forward Suggestions such as perfecting policy support，promoting the development of cold chain continuously and stably， optimizing the layout of cold storage，and improving the intelligence level of cold storage，so as to provide reference for the research and development of cold storage construction.