基于MaxEnt 模型的胡杨潜在适生区预测研究

Research on prediction of potential suitable areas of populuseuphratica based on MaxEnt model

关键词:  潜在适生区  胡杨  MaxEnt 模型  阿克苏河流域

Key words:  potential suitable area  populus euphratica  MaxEnt model  Aksu River Basin

摘要:

【目的】科学预测阿克苏河流域的胡杨潜在适生区并划分为不同等级，为阿克苏河流 域胡杨的物种可持续发展提供参考。【方法】文章实地调查获取胡杨的实际生长样点后，借 助最大熵模型（Maximum Entropy Model，MaxEnt）和地理信息技术预测阿克苏河流域胡杨潜 在适生区，分析了环境因子与胡杨生长的响应关系。【结果】对初步确定的气候、土壤、地 形等28 个环境因子进行贡献率分析和共线性诊断，筛选出了影响胡杨潜在分布的12 个主要 限制因子；利用MaxEnt 软件，经受试者工作特征曲线检验模型精度后，预测了胡杨的潜在 适生区范围，高适宜区和中适宜区的面积约为3 838.28 km2，主要分布在阿克苏河流域东北 方向温宿县五团场南部边缘、省道207 途径的多浪水库周边地区、流域南侧阿瓦提县丰收三 场周边、阿拉尔市十二团场南部边缘和十六团场南部边缘，这4 个区域是胡杨潜在适生重点 保护区域；等温性（Bio3）、最暖月最高温度（Bio5）、最干季度平均温度（Bio9）、年降水 量（Bio12）、上层土壤可交换性钠盐含量（ESP）、和海拔（DEM）是主要影响胡杨分布的 环境因子。【结论】研究结果可为流域天然植被保护恢复、生态输水工程实施提供技术支持。

Abstract:

［ Purpose］Scientifically predict the potential suitable areas of Populus euphratica in the Aksu River Basin and divide them into different levels to provide references for the sustainable development of species of Populus euphratica in the Tarim River Basin.［ Method］After the actual growth samples of Populus euphratica were obtained through field investigation， the maximum entropy niche model（ MaxEnt） and GIS technology were used to scientifically predict the potential suitable areas of Populus euphratica and classify them， and simultaneously analyze the effects of environmental factors on the growth of Populus euphratica Responsive relationship. ［Result］The contribution rate analysis and collinearity diagnosis of 28 environmental factors， including climate， soil， and topography， were conducted， and 19 main limiting factors affecting the potential distribution of Populus euphratica were screened out； using the maximum entropy niche model（ MaxEnt）， After the accuracy of the model was tested by the receiver operating characteristic curve， the potential suitable area of Populus euphratica was predicted， with an area of about 3838.28 km2， including high and medium suitable areas， In the northeast of the Aksu River Basin， the southern edge of the Fifth Regiment Field in Wensu County， the surrounding area of Dulang Reservoir through Provincial Highway 207， the surrounding area of the Harvest Third Regiment Field in Awat County on the south side of the basin， the southern edge of the Twelfth Regiment Field in Alar City and the southern edge of the Sixteenth Regiment Field is a key protected area with potential suitable for Populus euphratica； temperature（ Bio3）， highest temperature of the warmest month（ Bio5）， The average temperature of the driest quarter（ Bio9）， annual precipitation （Bio12）， the exchangeable sodium content of the upper soi（l ESP）， and altitude（ DEM） are the main environmental factors that affect the distribution of Populus euphratica.［ Conclusion］The research results can provide technical support for the protection and restoration of natural vegetation in the watershed and the implementation of ecological water delivery projects.