2000—2020年安徽省耕地转化与粮食高产—稳产的时空关系

The spatiotemporal relationship between cropland conversion and high-yield and stable-yield characteristics in Anhui Province from 2000 to 2020

关键词:  耕地转化  高产—稳产关联类型  GlobeLand30数据  粮食安全  安徽省

Key words:  cropland conversion  high-stable yield types  GlobeLand30 data  food security  Anhui Province

摘要:

【目的】 探究安徽省耕地与非耕地之间转化的时空特征及其与粮食生产能力变化的关联，为科学合理协调区域粮—地关系、确保国家粮食主产区实现“藏粮于地”提供理论支撑。【方法】 文章基于2000年、2010年和2020年的3期GlobeLand30数据，采用耕地与非耕地转化率、洛伦兹曲线与基尼系数、空间自相关分析、均值—变异系数等方法，分析2000—2020年耕地转化数量和耕地转化方式的时空分异特征及粮食生产能力的动态变化特征。应用Pearson相关分析、Kruskal-Wallis检验与MannWhitney检验方法，探究耕地转化对粮食生产能力的影响，揭示不同粮食高产—稳产类型的区县耕地转化的差异。【结果】 （1）耕地净转出呈现“北部高，中部分异，南部低”格局，且减少趋势在后10年明显加速，影响范围扩大。高—高聚集区为淮北平原区和江淮丘陵区，是因为城市化大量占用耕地，而低—低聚集区的皖南山区主要是因为“退耕还林”。（2）粮食生产能力在空间上形成环沿江圩区与皖南山区的高产—稳产带、江淮丘陵区的高产—不稳产连片区、淮北平原的低产—不稳产连片区，且整体粮食生产能力基本稳定；耕地转化对粮食高产性和稳产性水平产生显著影响。（3）安徽省高产—稳产、低产—稳产区县的耕地净转出面积较小，且转化方式以0-0-0-0为主，表明粮食生产力稳定的地区耕地保护较好。【结论】 安徽省应因地制宜加强耕地转化管理，尤其是重点保护和充分利用高产—稳产区域的优质耕地，确保粮食生产的可持续性。

Abstract:

Purpose The spatiotemporal characteristics of cropland/non-cropland conversion and the correlation with changes in grain production capacity in Anhui Province are discussed，which provides theoretical support for the scientific and rational coordination of local grain-land relationship to achieve the strategy of "storing grain in the land" in the major grain-producing areas in China.Method Based on the GlobeLand30 data of 2000，2010，and 2020，the methods such as cropland and non-cropland conversion rate，Lorenz curve and Gini coefficient，spatial autocorrelation analysis，mean-variation coefficient were used to analyze the spatiotemporal differentiation characteristics of cropland conversion quantity and mode，as well as the dynamic changes in grain production capacity from 2000 to 2020. Pearson correlation analysis，Kruskal-Wallis test，and Mann-Whitney test methods were applied to study the impact of cropland conversion on grain production capacity and reveal the differences in cropland conversion among counties with different grain high-yield and stable-yield types.Result （1）The net outflow area of cropland showed a spatial pattern of "high in the north，differentiated in the center，and low in the south" with a significant decreasing trend in the second decade，and an expansion of the affected range. The high-high aggregation areas were distributed in the Huaibei Plain and the Jianghuai Hilly Region，mainly due to the urbanization′s large-scale occupation of croplands. While the low-low aggregation area were distributed in the Wannan Mountain Area mainly due to the policy of "returning farmland to forest". （2）The grain production capacity was spatially formed as a high-yield and stable-yield belt around the Yangtze River embankment area and the Wannan Mountain area，a high-yield but unstable-yield contiguous area in the Jianghuai Hilly Region，and a low-yield and unstable-yield contiguous area in the Huaibei Plain. Moreover，the overall grain production capacity was basically stable. Furthermore，the cropland conversion had a significant impact on the high and stable yield levels of grain. （3）The outflow area of cropland was relatively small in both counties with the high-yield and stable-yield levels and counties with the low-yield and stable-yield levels. The conversion modes were primarily characterized by "0-0-0-0"，which indicated that the cropland protection has been well-implemented in areas with stable grain productivity.Conclusion Anhui Province should strengthen the cropland conversion management according to local conditions，especially focusing on the protection and effective utilization of high-quality cropland in high-yield and stable-yield areas to ensure the sustainability of grain production.