劳动力流动、耕地经营规模与农户收入——基于“人地业”要素视角

Labor mobility，farmland management scale and farm household income：——Based on the perspective of“human-land-industry”

关键词:  劳动力流动  耕地经营规模  农户收入  “人地业”要素  农户决策

Key words:  labor mobility  farmland management scale  farm household income  human-land-industry nexus  household decision-making

摘要:

【目的】 农户家庭劳动力流动、耕地经营规模与农户收入三者之间存在复杂的互动关系，揭示其内在作用机制对于优化资源配置和推动乡村高质量发展具有重要意义。【方法】 文章基于2015年和2021年中国社会状况综合调查两期7 545份农户调研数据，采用Oprobit模型、Probit模型、OLS模型和中介效应模型开展实证研究。【结果】 （1）劳动力流动程度低虽能促进耕地经营规模扩张，但该效应随时间衰减，而非农流动对耕地经营规模的缩减作用逐渐增强。（2）劳动力固定在农业对农业收入的边际效应从1.432升至2.612，非农流动呈现“强抑制农业收入，弱促进非农收入”的非对称性。（3）耕地经营规模决策在“劳动力固定在农业→农业收入”路径中发挥正向中介作用，但贡献率由60%降至35%；同时，耕地经营规模决策虽能通过促进非农流动提升非农收入，但通过加强非农流动对农业收入的抑制效应不明显。（4）劳动力流动对耕地经营规模决策存在区域异质性和规模门槛效应，且小规模农户的劳动力流动对农户收入的影响更敏感。【结论】 为推动小农户与现代农业的有机衔接，需尊重农户意愿推进规模经营，分层制定耕地流转政策，并通过产业融合与服务创新，强化小农户与新型经营主体的利益联结。

Abstract:

[Purpose] There is a complex interrelationship among labor mobility，farmland management scale，and farm household income. Revealing the underlying mechanisms of this relationship is important for optimizing resource allocation and promoting the high-quality development of the rural areas.[Method] Based on 7 545 observations of farm households from the 2015 and 2021 waves of the Chinese Social Survey （CSS），this study used the Oprobit，Probit，OLS，and mediation effect models to conduct an empirical analysis.[Result] （1） Although low labor mobility promoted the expansion of farmland management scale，this effect diminished over time，while the negative effect of non-agricultural mobility on farmland management scale gradually strengthened. （2） The marginal effect of labor retained in agriculture on agricultural income increased from 1.432 to 2.612. Non-agricultural mobility exhibited an asymmetric effect，with its strong inhibitory effect on agricultural income outweighing its weak promotional effect on non-agricultural income. （3） The decision on farmland management scale played a positive mediating role in the pathway from "labor retained in agriculture" to "agricultural income"，but its contribution rate decreased from 60% to 35%. Meanwhile，although farmland management scale decisions increased non-agricultural income by promoting non-agricultural mobility，non-agricultural mobility did not significantly strengthen the inhibition of agricultural income. （4） Labor mobility exhibited regional heterogeneity and scale threshold effects on farmland management scale decisions. Moreover，labor mobility among small-scale farmers had a more pronounced impact on farm household income.[Conclusion] To promote the organic integration of smallholder farmers with modern agriculture，it is necessary to respect farmers′ willingness in advancing scaled operation，formulate tiered farmland transfer policies based on labor mobility levels，and strengthen the interest linkage between smallholder farmers and new agricultural entities through industrial integration and service innovation.