广东省森林碳汇量估算及其空间效应分析

ESTIMATION OF CARBON SEQUESTRATION VALUE AND ANALYSIS OF SPACE EFFECT of FORESTS IN GUANGDONG PROVINCE

关键词:  广东省 碳汇 CO2FIX模型 森林 新造林 空间效应

Key words:  Guangdong province  carbon sequestration  CO2FIX model  forest  afforestation  space effect

摘要:

文章选用蓄积量换算因子法和CO2FIX v3.2模型，分别用于估算广东省现有森林的静态碳汇储量和新造林动态碳汇潜力，并利用空间计量Moran I指数分析广东省碳汇布局的空间效应，为广东碳交易市场发展及其CDM造林碳汇项目的开展提供决策依据。研究表明： 2010年广东省全省碳汇总量为481.34TgC，在假设进行轮伐的情况下， 2008～2057年间广东省实现的新造林净固碳量为97.38TgC； 其中粤北地区碳汇储量和碳汇潜力最高，珠三角地区碳汇储量及碳汇潜力最低。空间效应分析显示了广东省碳汇布局存在较强的空间正相关，大部分城市地区的碳汇储量及潜力处于高—高集群或者低—低的集群中，空间集群特征客观存在。结论表明，应充分考虑到碳汇空间的分布特性，考虑到不同地区碳汇储量及潜力之间的关系，将森林碳汇纳入广东碳排放权交易体系，开展跨区合作，从而实现广东省减排成本的最小化和区域碳排放平衡。

Abstract:

This research estimates the static carbon sequestration of existing forests and potential carbon sequestration of the new afforestation in Guangdong Province by applying a method of stand volume conversion factor and CO2FIX V3.2 model with the data of China and Guangdong Province Statistical Yearbook. Besides, by computing Moran's I index, the space effect of carbon sequestration can be showed, the research result can provide decision basis for the development of carbon trading market and implement of CDM afforestation carbon sequestration projects in Guangdong Province. The result showed that: the total carbon sequestration in Guangdong Province in 2010 were 481.37TgC. Under the precondition of harvesting scenario, simulation results suggested that the net carbon sequestration by new forestation would be 97.38TgC from 2008 to 2057.Generally northern Guangdong had the most carbon sequestration and potential carbon sequestration, but the Pearl River Delta regions was least. It made a conclusion that the more underdeveloped cities were, the more carbon sequestration stock of existing forests and potential carbon sequestration of new afforestation cities had, mainly due to the difference of forest coverage rate. Further, the analysis of space effect showed that there was a strong space positive correlation for carbon sequestration reserves and potential in Guangdong Province, and most of cities in Guangdong Province were located in high-high or low-low group, and spatial cluster characteristic existed objectively. It indicated that it's necessary to take space characteristic of carbon sequestration into consideration, to consider the relations of the sequestration stock, potential carbon sequestration in different regions, and to put forests carbon sequestration into the right of carbon emission trading system and promote cooperation among different cities, so as to realize the minimum of emission reduction cost and the balance of regional carbon emission.