| 摘要: |
| ［目的］探究新疆塔城市玉米生育期气候变化特征，包括气候因子（气温、降水、日照时数、积温和潜在蒸散量）趋势变化特征、突变特征和周期特征。［方法］文章选取1961~2013年的气象观测资料进行研究，运用趋势分析法、Mann-Kendall 突变检验法、小波分析法。［结果］塔城市玉米生育期气温和降水年际变化呈明显的增加趋势，而风速、日照时数和相对湿度呈缓慢减少趋势；从相对湿润指数来看，玉米生育期表现湿润化趋势。平均最高气温、积温的突变结果分别表明在1995年、1996年发生增加突变特征，平均风速和相对湿度分别在1997年、2008年发生减少突变趋势；周期变化特征结果显示，平均最高气温、积温大致存在多个尺度的周期特征，即30 年的大周期和15 年的小周期尺度。［结论］通过对塔城市气候变化对玉米生育期影响的研究，进一步分析气候变化规律，认识塔城市玉米生长适宜性气候变化，对充分发掘生产潜力具有重要作用。 |
| 关键词: 气候变化 生育期 M-K检验 周期与突变 分析 |
| DOI： |
| 分类号:S162;S513 |
| 基金项目:国家国际科技合作计划（2010DFA92720-13） |
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| TRENG ANALYSIS OF CLIMATE CHANGE OF MAIZE GROWTH STAGES IN TACHENG CITY |
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Luo Nana, Bake·Batur, Xue Yarong, Kang Lijuan, Wang Menghui
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College of Grassland and Environmental Science, Xinjiang Agricultural University, Urumqi 830052, China
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| Abstract: |
| Based on meteorological data, the characteristics of climate change (variation, mutation characteristics and cycle characteristics) in the maize growth period of Tacheng city were analyzed by using trend analysis method, Mann Kendall test, and wavelet analysis method. The results showed that the average temperature experienced an increasing trend, while the wind speed showed a decrease. The average maximum temperature, average temperature, accumulated temperature revealed abrupt increasing trend in 1996, 1995, respectively. However, the average minimum temperature, sunshine hours, potential evapotranspiration had no obvious mutation, while the relative humidity and wind speed revealed abrupt decreased in 1997, 2008. The average maximum temperature and accumulated temperature had two periodic scale characteristics, i.e., 30a long cycle and 15a small cycle. Duration of sunshine hours, potential evapotranspiration, relative humidity and wind speed in the growth period of maize had the periodic of 30a and 16a. |
| Key words: climate change growth period analysis M-K test cycle and mutation |
