基于主成分分析的关中—天水经济区水资源承载力评价

ASSESSMENT OF WATER RESOURCES CARRYING CAPACITY IN GUANZHONG-TIANSHUI ECONOMIC ZONE BASED ON PRINCIPAL COMPONET ANALYSIS

关键词:  关中—天水经济区水资源承载力主成分分析法综合评价

Key words:  The Guanzhong Tianshui Economic Zone  water resources carrying capacity  principal component analysis  overall evaluation

摘要:

［目的］通过探讨关中—天水经济区水资源状况，可为经济区水资源的合理配置与经济社会的协调、可持续发展提供决策参考。［方法］根据关中—天水经济区2007~2016年相关统计资料，采用主成分分析法和构建指标体系对经济区水资源承载力从时间和空间两个角度进行综合评价。［结果］（1）经济区水资源承载力得分由2007年的-0067增加至2016年的1877，水资源承载力与开发利用潜力呈现由大到小的变化，而水资源开发利用强度则呈逐渐增大趋势。（2）经济区各地市间水资源承载力存在显著差异，西安、咸阳两地的水资源承载力得分最高，均超过1300，但水资源承载力和开发利用潜力最小； 而杨凌、铜川两地的水资源承载力得分最低，均小于-2250，但水资源承载力和开发利用潜力则最大。（3）经济发展水平、人口数量、水资源供需量、工农业生产用水是影响经济区水资源承载力大小的主要因素； 其中，经济发展水平的贡献最大。［结论］经济区水资源承载力与开发利用潜力变小，开发利用强度增大； 各地市间水资源承载力差异显著，将在一定程度上对经济区人口、经济、环境可持续发展起着明显的制约作用。为了促进经济区经济社会的健康可持续发展，应加强对水资源的管理与废水处理，合理控制经济区人口容量，提高社会节水意识，转变经济发展模式，大力推行节水型与节约型经济发展道路。

Abstract:

Exploring the water resources situation in Guanzhong Tianshui Economic Zone can provide reference for the decision making of the rational allocation of water resources and sustainable development of the Economic Zone. Based on the statistics of Guanzhong Tianshui Economic Zone from 2007 to 2016, this thesis adopted component analysis and index system to evaluate the carrying capacity of water resources from the aspects of time and space. The results showed that (I) the score of water resources carrying capacity in the Economic Zone increased from -0.067 in 2007 to 1.877 in 2016. The water resources carrying capacity and development and utilization potential changed from large to small, while the intensity of water resources development and utilization gradually increased. (II) There was a significant difference in the water resources carrying capacity among the cities across the Economic Zone, and the water resources carrying capacity of Xi'an and Xianyang had the highest score, all exceeding 1300, but the water resources carrying capacity and development and utilization potential were the smallest; and Yangling and Tongchuan were the two places, and the water resources carrying capacity had the lowest score, both less than -2.250, but the water resources carrying capacity and development and utilization potential were the greatest. (III)The level of economic development, population, supply and demand of water, water for industrial and agricultural production were the main factors that affected the carrying capacity of water resources in the Economic Zone, among which the level of economic development contributed the most. It concluded that the bearing capacity of water resources in the Economic Zone and the potential for development and utilization were small. The differences in water resources carrying capacity between cities had significant constraints on the sustainable development of population, economy and environment in the Economic Zone. In order to promote the healthy and sustainable economic and social development in the Economic Zone, it should strengthen the management of water resources and wastewater treatment, control the population's reasonable capacity and raise awareness of water conservation in society, change the mode of economic development, and vigorously promote water saving and economical economic development.