设施蔬菜农户病虫害综合防控行为风险评估*——基于贝叶斯分类统计方法的实证分析

RISK ASSESSMENT OF LACK OF COMPREHENSIVE PEST PREVENTION AND CONTROL BEHAVIOR BANSED ON BAYESIAN CLASSIFIER* ——EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS BASED ON THE PRODUCTION CHARACTERISTIC OF FACILITY VEGETABLES GROWERS AS RISK FACTORS

关键词:  贝叶斯分类设施蔬菜综合防控行为生产性特征风险因素

Key words:  Bayesian classification  facility vegetables  comprehensive prevention and control behavior  productive characteristics  risk factors

摘要:

［目的］高效防治手段的实施可以解决单纯依靠化学药剂防治病虫害的劣势，保障蔬菜质量和安全，然而我国设施蔬菜生产者的高效防控行为存在一定的缺失。［方法］文章对设施蔬菜典型种植区域的生产者样本数据进行分析，建立朴素的贝叶斯分类模型并进行样本的训练。从综合防治类型的角度选取了有利于减少病虫害风险的综合防控行为，进一步对设施蔬菜种植户病虫害综合防控行为缺失进行了风险评估。［结果］农户施用生物农药的行为比较普遍且易受到风险因素的影响。综合平稳性特征和后验概率值比对，政府是否有生产性补贴对农户土壤处理和生物农药施用行为的缺失影响较大，生产者种植年限和风险投保行为对农户绿色防控行为的缺失影响较大。总的来说，生产者的种植年限、是否享有政府补贴、风险投保、农产品认证、生产专业组织成员资格等因素都是可能致使防控行为的缺失的风险因素。［结论］政策启示：在“预防为主，综合防治”的植保工作方针指导下开展防治，实施相关的奖惩制度、建立严格的农产品质量安全的监控体系、发挥基层组织的带动作用、大力推广高效防控技术在设施蔬菜生产者群体中的应用。

Abstract:

The implementation of efficient prevention and control means can solve the disadvantages of relying solely on chemical agents to control pests and diseases, effectively reduce the resistance of pests and diseases, and ensure the quality and safety of vegetables. This research analyzed the producer sample data of typical planting areas of facility vegetables, established a simple Bayesian classification model and conducted sample training. From the perspective of comprehensive prevention and control types, it carried out a risk assessment of the comprehensive prevention and control behaviors, which were conducive to reducing the risk of pests and diseases.The results are showed that the behavior of farmers′ applying bio pesticides is more common and vulnerable to risk factors. The stability characteristics are compared with the posterior probability, the producer′s productive subsidy has a greater impact on the farmer′s soil treatment and biological pesticide application, the farmer′s planting years and insurance affect the farmers′ green prevention and control behavior. In general, factors such as the age of farmer, government subsidies, risk insurance, agricultural product certification, and membership of production professional organizations are all risk factors that may lead to the lack of prevention and control behavior. The valuable enlightenment of the policy are showed as follows. Under the guidance of the "prevention based, comprehensive prevention and control" work guidelines of plant protection, it should carry out government level prevention and control, carry out the reward and punishment system related to pest and disease prevention, establish strict supervision and control system for agricultural product quality and safety, and vigorously promote the application of high efficiency control technology in the community of facility vegetable producers.