玉米补贴政策调整对宏观经济的影响*——基于CGE模型的分析

THE IMPACT OF MAIZE SUBSIDY POLICY ADJUSTMENT ON MACRO ECONOMY*——ANALYSIS BASED ON CGE MODEL

关键词:  玉米补贴政策一般均衡模型宏观经济影响

Key words:  maize subsidy  policy  Computable General Equilibrium model  macroeconomics  impact

摘要:

［目的］寻求玉米补贴政策改变对宏观经济和粮食安全的影响，并厘清影响的幅度，寻求玉米政策调整的合理方向。［方法］对现有的中国可计算一般均衡模型进行了改进，引入库存积累、临时存储库存入市、库存销售和顺价机制，加入玉米实物量模块。通过设定政策模拟情景，运用2012年中国投入产出表、农业农村部、中国统计年鉴等资料将数据库进行了更新，对农业部门的玉米补贴减少政策的影响进行了模拟。［结果］降低玉米种植补贴后，玉米种植面积和产量都将改变。短期内，补贴减少将减少财政压力。中长期来看，减少补贴政策将对GDP产生负面影响，且远大于财政补贴减少的幅度。而玉米占经济量的份额很小，玉米相关行业的变化，对宏观经济的影响较弱。［结论］实现去库存、调结构、降低种植面积，进行市场化决策，就要坚持玉米价格市场化改革，注重政策的时效性和针对性，加强信息监测预警。提高政府对玉米市场的宏观调控能力，实施多策并举的政策，有助于实现宏观经济改善，保持农业生产持续健康良好运行。

Abstract:

This paper aims to explore the impact of changes in the subsidy policy for the maize industry on national macro economy and food security, both in a quantitative manner, in order to find a reasonable direction for policy adjustment. We improved the existing Computable General Equilibrium Model in China, and introduced inventory accumulation, temporary stocking/selling, inventory to sales ratio and profitable pricing mechanism, along with a physical maize quantity module, updated the database with data from 2012 China Input Output Table, Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs documents, and China Statistical Yearbook; and simulated the consequences of maize subsidy reduction policy in agricultural sector by setting a policy simulation scenario. We found the results were shown as follows. Reduction in maize cultivation subsidies impacted both maize acreage and output. In the short term, reduction in subsidies eased the financial pressure of the government; yet in the medium to long term, such reduction had a negative impact on GDP which was far greater than the savings in financial subsidies. However, fluctuations in maize related industries had a minor impact on the macro economy due to its small share in economic volume. In summary, market oriented reform of maize pricing should be exercised, timely and pertinent policy formulation be valued, and information monitoring and early warning be strengthened, so as to achieve the goals of destocking, restructuring, acreage reducing, and consequently make market oriented decisions. The strengthening of governmental macro control ability and implementation of multi pronged policies in the maize sector will benefit macroeconomic improvement, and keep the agricultural sector in a sustainable and healthy track.