我国玉米空间格局演变及其影响因素研究进展

RESEARCH PROGRESS ON THE EVOLITION OF MAIZE SPATIAL PATTERN AND ITS INFLUENCING FACTORS IN CHINA＊

关键词:  生产  消费  贸易  玉米  空间格局  影响因素  未来展望

Key words:  production  consumption  trade  corn  spatial pattern  influencing factors  future prospect

摘要:

目的 文章梳理了我国玉米空间格局演变及其影响因素的已有文献。方法 文章采用文献综述法和归纳分析法，总结了我国玉米空间格局演变及其影响因素文献的研究结论和发展趋势。结果 （1）已有的关于玉米生产、消费和贸易的文献，均从中国和世界两个尺度进行分析，认为我国玉米消费量和进口量逐年递增，供给偏紧，消费结构和贸易格局正在发生改变，应当采取提高玉米单产、实施玉米优势区规划等应对措施。（2）在玉米空间格局演变方面，已有文献聚焦于作物空间格局演变特征和规律，认为我国玉米生产中心有“北移”的趋势。（3）在玉米空间格局演变驱动因素方面，已有文献主要从自然、社会经济、要素投入、技术进步和农业政策等因素入手，研究发现气候变暖、自然灾害对玉米增产有负向作用；经济发展水平、交通运输水平等因素对玉米空间布局有正向作用，而非农就业有负向作用；劳动力投入、技术进步、惠农政策等因素都是影响玉米生产布局的重要因素。（4）上述研究多以描述性统计分析、数理统计分析、传统计量经济学等为研究方法。结论 在现有研究的基础上，定量分析和识别影响玉米生产空间格局的关键因素，将是一个新的研究思路。

Abstract:

This research aims to summarize the change of spatial distribution of maize production in China and influencing factors shaping the distribution of maize production, along with the discussion of the possible future research directions, so as to provide useful reference for further research on maize and other crops spatial pattern in the future. Based on a comprehensive literature review and inductive analysis, the results were found as follows. (1) Two spatial scales, namely, national and global scale, were employed in the studies on maize production, consumption and trade. These studies showed that both consumption and import of corn in China had been increasing, while corn supply being tight, along with the change of the corn consumption and trade pattern. Some countermeasures were proposed, such as increasing yield level and strengthening the concentrating zone of maize production. (2)As for the changing of distribution of maize production, the reviewed studies focused on the characteristics and changing trends, and the maize production center in China showed a trend of "moving northward". (3) As for the driving factors of maize spatial pattern evolution, the existing literature mainly focused on the factors, including nature resources, social economic development, inputs, technological progress and agricultural policies. The results showed that climate warming, natural disasters exerted negative effects on maize yield level. Economic development and transportation improvement exerted positive effects, while nonagricultural employment imposed negative effects on the distribution of maize production. Additionally, labor input, technological progress, preferential agricultural policy and other factors all played a prominent role in affecting the distribution of corn production. (4)The research were mainly based on the descriptive or mathematical statistical analysis, and traditional econometric analysis. In summary, the existing studies have already built a solid basis for further researches. Thus, future studies could focus more on quantitative spatial analysis to identify the key factors and their contribution shares to maize production, consumption and trade.