| 摘要: |
| 目的 文章通过意愿需求和制度供给两个层面分析湖南省农业转移人口市民化影响的代际差异，为地方政府制定针对性的政策提供指导意见。方法 文章基于湖南省6 091名农村流动人口样本，选取农业转移人口的后顾之忧为核心解释变量，其余个体特征、家庭特征和流动特征为控制变量，构建双变量Probit模型，实证分析农业转移人口市民化的影响因素与代际差异，通过城市和年龄的固定效应进行稳健性检验。结果 相比于“务工经商”的流动群体，拥有“较稳定的职业”“较高的收入”和“已建立健康档案”的农业转移人口更倾向于在城市落户定居；现有市民化政策更加倾向于男性，但女性的落户意愿反而更强；“受教育程度越高，落户可能性越大”仅限于第一代农民工；有赡养老人和抚养子女需求的农民工更愿意留在城市。结论 统筹城乡医疗保险、关注进城务工子女教育、加大职业技能培训和健康教育宣传能够加快推进农业转移人口市民化进程。 |
| 关键词: 农业转移人口 市民化 代际差异 双变量Probit模型 湖南省 |
| DOI：10.7621/cjarrp.1005-9121.20210219 |
| 分类号:C971 |
| 基金项目:教育部人文社科基金项目“劳动力流动视角下中西部地区乡村振兴的实现机制研究”（18YJCZH243）；湖南省社科基金基地项目“劳动力回流助推湖南省农民专业合作社发展的动力机制及实现路径研究”（20JD15）；湖南省社科评审委员会项目“乡村振兴战略下湖南省新乡贤返乡的影响因素及集聚效应研究”（XSP19YBZ022）；湖南省教育厅一般项目“乡村治理视角下湖南省新乡贤回流的内生动力机制研究”（18C0731）；湖南省应用特色学科“应用经济学”平台（湘教通〔2018〕469号） |
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| ANALYSIS OF THE FACTORS AFFECTING THE URBANIZATION DECISION OF RURAL MIGRANTS*——EVIDENCE FROM 6 091 RURAL MIGRANT POPULATION IN HUNAN PROVINCE |
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He Xin1,2,3, Zou Yu1,2, Tian Lihui1,4, Li Yifei5
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1.Collaborative Innovation Center of Dongting Lake Eco-Economic Zone Construction and Development in Hunan Province, Changde 415000, Hunan, China;2.College of Economics and Management, Hunan University of Arts and Science, Changde 415000, Hunan, China;3.Changde Bureau of Statistics, Changde 415000, Hunan, China;4.Business School, Xiangtan University, Xiangtan 411105, Hunan, China;5.Management World, Beijing 100020, China
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| Abstract: |
| The Bivariate Probit model can consider the effect of policy guarantees and the concerns of rural migrants at the same time, it has great significance for accelerating the process of urbanization of rural migrants. This research amis to study the generational difference of urbanization of rural migrants in Hunan province from two aspects, the willingness and institutional supply, so as to provide guidance for local government's specific policy. Based on the sample of 6091 rural migrants in Hunan province, this research took rural migrants' concern as the key explanatory variable, and the remaining individual characteristics, the family characteristics and the mobility characteristics were used as control variables, and a Bivariate Probit model was used to empirically analyze the influencing factors and generational difference of urbanization of rural migrants, and tested robustness through the fixed effect of urban and age. This results were listed as follows. Firstly, compared with works in business, the rural migrants who had stable jobs, higher incomes and established health records were more likely to settle in cities, while workers in business were not willing to settle in cities. Secondly, current policies of citizenship were more inclined towards men, but women's willingness to settle down was stronger. Thirdly, the phenomenon that the higher the education level, the greater the possibility of urbanization was limited to the first generation of rural migrants. Fourthly, migrant workers who were in need of pensioners and child-raising were more willing to stay in the city. In conclusion, coordinating urban and rural medical insurance, paying attention to the education of the children of migrant workers, increasing vocational skills training and health education promotion can accelerate the urbanization of rural migrants. |
| Key words: rural migrant urbanization generational difference Bivariate Probit model Hunan province |
