气候变化认知对农户适应性耕作行为的影响基于湖北省“十县千户”的田野调查

COGNITION OF FARMERS’ CLIMATE CHANGE AND ITS IMPACT ON ADAPTABLE TILLAGE BEHAVIOR*——BASED ON A THOUSAND HOUSEHOLDS’ FIELD SURVEY IN TEN COUNTIES OF HUBEI PROVINCE

关键词:  气候变化认知  适应性耕作行为  十县百组千户  结构方程模型  多群组分析

Key words:  climate change cognition  adaptive tillage behavior  hundreds of rural households in ten counties  Structural Equation Modeling  multi-group analysis

摘要:

目的 气候变化适应是发展“气候智慧型农业”的重要内涵，是实现国家粮食安全和可持续发展的根本途径之一。方法 文章通过构建农户“气候变化认知—适应性行为”决策分析框架，并利用湖北省“十县百组千户”的调查数据与结构方程模型，以探究农户气候变化认知（自然环境认知、经济需求认知、自我效能认知）对其（主动型、被动型）适应性耕作行为的影响。结果 （1）农户气候变化认知水平提高能促进其采取适应性耕作行为；其中，气候变化认知水平提高促进其采取主动型适应性耕作行为的作用更大。（2）从影响路径来看，自然环境认知、自我效能认知通过影响情感态度、问题应对策略，经济需求认知通过影响情感态度，以促进农户采取适应性耕作行为。（3）多群组分析还发现，受教育程度越高、家庭农业收入占比越大、种植规模越大的农户，其气候变化认知水平越高，则越倾向于采取主动型适应性耕作行为。结论 政府应及时发布气候变化的新闻资讯、加大气候变化知识的宣传教育力度、加强适应性耕作技术的相关培训、完善农业气象指数保险，以强化农户自然环境认知、提高经济需求认知和自我效能认知，进而引导其采取适应性耕作行为。

Abstract:

Adaptation to climate change is an important connotation of developing "climate-smart agriculture" and one of the fundamental ways to achieve national food security and sustainable development. This paper constructed a "cognition-behavior" decision framework to explore the impact of farmers’ climate change cognitions (including natural environmental cognition, economic demanding cognition, and self-efficacy cognition) on their (active and passive) adaptive tillage behaviors. With data collected from ten counties in Hubei province, this study employed Structural Equation Modeling (SEM) for the empirical analysis. The results showed that: (1) Enhancing rural households’ climate change cognitive levels could promote their adoption of (active and passive) adaptive tillage behaviors, among which the impact of climate change cognition on active adaptive tillage behavior was greater than the passive adaptive tillage behavior; (2) From the perspective of the influence path, natural environment cognition and self-efficacy cognition could promote rural households to adopt adaptive tillage behavior by influencing their emotional attitudes and coping strategies, and economic demand cognition could promote rural households to adopt adaptive tillage behavior by influencing their emotional attitudes; (3) Results from multi-group analysis indicated that rural households with higher education level, higher proportion of family agricultural income and larger planting scale had high cognition level of climate change, and therefore, tend to adopt active adaptive tillage behaviors. Therefore, the government should release the news of climate change timely, intensify propaganda of climate change knowledge, strengthen training on adaptative training, and improve the agrometeoro logical index insurance, so as to improve farmers′ natural environment cognition, economic demand cognition and self-efficacy cognition to adopt adaptive tillage behavior.